Renowned legal scholar and Executive Director of the Ghana Centre for Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana), Professor H. Kwesi Prempeh, has commended Mussa Dankwah, a leading pollster and Executive Director of the Global InfoAnalytics, and Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako (KAB), a data analyst, for their exceptional contributions to electoral predictions ahead of Ghana’s 2024 elections.
In a detailed reflection, Professor Prempeh highlighted their scientific methodologies as critical to understanding the dynamics of voter behaviour, contrasting sharply with the superstitious reliance on spiritual predictions often seen in the country’s political landscape.
Prof. Prempeh recalled his introduction to Mussa Dankwah’s work in April or May 2024 during a presentation on election polls. He pointed to Musa Dankwah’s early data indicating a decisive victory for John Dramani Mahama and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) over Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and the New Patriotic Party (NPP).
“When, during the Q&A, I was invited to comment on Mussa’s findings, I noted that, though the projected margin of victory appeared to me unusually high, I had no data or evidence to contradict his findings, as CDD had not yet conducted its Afrobarometer (“AB”) Ghana Round 10 survey.
“Nonetheless, I added that, based on our AB Round 9 data from 2022 and the regions where Mussa’s data showed NDC significantly outperforming NPP, notably Greater Accra, Central and Western Regions, I found Mussa’s findings credible.”
Professor H. Kwesi Prempeh, Executive Director for Centre Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana)
According to Prof. Kwesi Prempeh, by October 2024, CDD-Ghana’s Afrobarometer Round 10 findings strongly corroborated Dankwah’s earlier predictions, deepening his respect for Mussa Dankwah’s work.
“Our data generally and strongly confirmed what Mussa had found much earlier,” Prof. Prempeh stated, noting how Dankwah’s granular approach provided region- and constituency-specific insights that enriched public understanding of voter trends.
He pointed out that as election day approached, Musa Dankwah’s weekly—and at times daily—polling updates became a crucial resource.
“If I was a betting man, I would have lost badly,” Prof. Prempeh admitted, emphasizing how Mussa Dankwah accurately forecasted NDC’s exceptional competitiveness in Ashanti and a near-perfect sweep across most regions.
Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako: Analytical Precision
While less publicized than Musa Dankwah, Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako also earned Prof. H. Kwesi Prempeh’s admiration for his Presidential Election Prediction Model (#GhPVModel).
Initially developed for the 2020 elections, Prof. Kwesi Prempeh noted that the model accurately predicted the outcome, with only minor deviations from the actual results.
“He first launched it in 2020, as a presidential election prediction model to predict Ghana’s 2020 presidential elections and all future presidential elections. For the 2020 elections, his model predicted 47.07% for the NDC and 51.14% for the NPP in the presidential contest. The actual presidential results were: NDC 47.36%; NPP 51.30%.”
Professor H. Kwesi Prempeh, Executive Director for Centre Democratic Development (CDD-Ghana)
Again, Professor Kwesi Prempeh indicated that in November 2024, Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako’s model forecasted an NDC win with 51.25% of the vote against NPP’s 46.67%.
He pointed out that the predictions mirrored Mussa Dankwah’s findings, further validating the credibility of scientific approaches in electoral analysis, asserting that, unlike Musa Dankwah’s statistical polling, Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako’s model utilized a multi-variable analysis, assigning weights to key electoral factors to project outcomes.
Prof. Prempeh noted that while Mussa Dankwah’s work provided granular insights into voter intentions, Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako’s methodology excelled in identifying the broader issues shaping voter behaviour.
He emphasized that together, their complementary approaches offered a robust framework for election prediction. In a political environment often swayed by the predictions of prophets and spiritualists, Prof. Prempeh posited that the accuracy of Mussa Dankwah’s and Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako’s scientific methods marks a watershed moment.
“Their work is an important victory for the use and superiority of scientific methods in understanding voter intentions, behaviour, and dynamics,” Prof. Prempeh observed. Beyond election predictions, Prof. Prempeh emphasized the broader implications of their work.
He urged political actors and policymakers to leverage data-driven insights to improve electioneering strategies, policymaking, and public decision-making.
“I hope we use these avenues more to enhance the quality of our political processes and governance,” he concluded. With Ghana heading into an era of increasingly competitive elections, the achievements of Mussa Dankwah and Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako underscore the value of evidence-based analysis in shaping political narratives.
Prof. Prempeh’s endorsement serves as a clarion call for stakeholders to prioritize data and scientific rigor in their engagements, paving the way for a more informed and democratic society.
“Ayekoo” to Mussa Dankwah and Kwaku Antwi-Boasiako, Prof. Prempeh exclaimed, underscoring the collective gratitude of a nation in need of credible, insightful analysis.
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