The new Donald Trump administration has reportedly claimed that Sir Keir Starmer’s government is “over a barrel” as Britain becomes increasingly dependent on a trade deal with the United States.

Senior sources within Trump’s team suggest that the UK has little choice but to seek an agreement, particularly after Prime Minister Starmer declared that his government’s success would hinge on achieving economic growth.

With post-Brexit tensions straining relations between the UK and the EU, and only modest returns from Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ recent visit to China, a Trump aide reportedly remarked, “It’s time to remind Starmer who holds all the cards in this relationship.”

Adding to the strain is the Trump administration’s decision to reject Lord Mandelson’s credentials as UK ambassador to the US. The UK government also faced criticism for backtracking on its attempts to hand over the Chagos Islands before Trump’s inauguration.

The US has long pushed for the UK to lift its ban on chlorinated chicken and hormone-treated beef — policies that former UK ambassador Kim Darroch warned could devastate British farming.

Over the weekend, Sir Keir admitted his desire for a trade deal with the US, while Chief Treasury Secretary Darren Jones expressed optimism about striking “plenty of good deals.”

However, concerns for Downing Street grew after President Trump reiterated his commitment to imposing tariffs during his acceptance speech.

Andrew Hale, a senior analyst at the Heritage Foundation, a think tank influential in shaping the Trump administration’s policies, stated, “Trump has got Starmer over a barrel.”

“The UK economy is contracting, and there is no growth. Starmer’s government has doubled down on the failed economic policies of Jeremy Hunt and previous Conservative prime ministers.
“The Trump administration can offer a free trade agreement that could be a lifeline for the UK economy. But Starmer and his team have done everything to offend President Trump. Now they risk facing tariffs as economic sanctions if they align economically with China — a foreign adversary.”
Andrew Hale

China as a Strategic Bluff

Trump’s team has dismissed the UK’s engagement with Beijing as a misguided attempt to gain leverage in negotiations.

“They are literally using China as a paper tiger. They want us to believe they will fall back on China if they can’t secure a trade deal with us. It’s ridiculous, and no one here is taking it seriously.”
A source from Mar-a-Lago

The £600 million investment deal Reeves secured from China was also derided as “peanuts” by Trump’s aides, further undermining Labour’s strategy.

Brexiteers and US trade experts, including those at the Heritage Foundation, have advised Trump’s administration that Britain’s economic alignment with the EU is unfeasible. A senior source noted, “The EU will not save Britain, even if it wanted to.” This casts doubt on the effectiveness of Starmer’s widely publicized plans to reset relations with the EU.

Hale, who also specializes in trade at the Thomas A. Roe Institute of Economic Studies, stressed the urgency of securing a US trade deal.

“Everyone in Washington knows that Starmer and his team would prefer a realignment with the EU over the US. But given the slow pace of EU trade negotiations and ratifications, the UK economy cannot afford to wait.”
Andrew Hale

As Britain grapples with economic contraction and strained alliances, the Trump administration appears poised to leverage its position. Whether the UK can navigate these challenges to secure a favorable trade agreement remains uncertain, but the stakes for Starmer’s government and the British economy are undeniably high.