The latest Techne tracker poll has placed the Conservative Party in third place for the first time, raising new doubts over Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. This shift comes as Reform UK gears up to challenge Badenoch in her Essex North West constituency on Friday, marking the fifth anniversary of Brexit.
According to the poll, the Conservatives lost one percentage point this week, falling to 23%. Meanwhile, Reform UK held steady at 24%, and Labour saw a slight boost, gaining one point to reach 26%. The Liberal Democrats slipped to 12%, while the Green Party remained unchanged at 7%.
Nigel Farage, a key figure in Reform UK, suggested that this decline is just the beginning for the Conservatives. “They will start to fall quickly, they already are in Wales,” he said.
Recent polling data indicates that Conservative support is holding up in the southeast and south of England. However, for the third consecutive week, the Techne poll shows that around a quarter (24%) of Conservative voters from the 2024 election have defected to Reform UK.
Michela Morizzo, Chief Executive of Techne UK, described the latest findings as “very bad news” for Badenoch and the Tories. “Our regular Westminster tracker poll this week continues to reinforce the trend that the UK very much has three main political parties competing for power,” she stated.
“For Sir Keir Starmer and his Labour Party, there is some better news after several weeks of slipping back. However, this is not the case for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives. Her party slips back one point in national vote share to 23%.
“With Nigel Farage’s Reform UK staying steady on 24% of national vote share, this means the Conservatives drop down to third in our polling. This third-place position for Badenoch and her party is the first time that the Techne UK poll has ever put the Conservatives in such a lowly position.”
Michela Morizzo
She concluded, “So this week brings better news for Labour and Reform UK, but conversely, the Conservatives continue to struggle.”
The poll also highlights generational divides in political support. While the Conservatives perform better among voters over the age of 55, Reform UK has gained significant traction among younger voters.
Last week, Morizzo suggested that a partnership between the Conservatives and Reform UK would be “unassailable”. However, given Reform UK’s direct challenge to Badenoch’s leadership in her own constituency, such an alliance appears increasingly unlikely.
Badenoch’s Strategy in Doubt
Some Conservative MPs are beginning to question Badenoch’s strategy, particularly her reluctance to introduce new policies. This follows what many perceived as a lackluster performance during Prime Minister’s Questions this week.
Tensions also flared within the party after Shadow Foreign Secretary Dame Priti Patel defended net migration levels of 1.2 million under the previous Conservative government, sparking backlash from both Labour and some Tory members.
Labour responded swiftly, with a spokesperson criticizing the Conservatives as “out of touch with reality”, adding that “Dame Priti seems proud of her central role in the Tory open-border experiment.”
Badenoch’s office later appeared to distance itself from Patel’s remarks. A spokesperson clarified that under her leadership, the Conservative Party “will tell the truth about the mistakes we made.”
“While the last Conservative government may have tried to control numbers, we did not deliver,” the spokesperson admitted.
Patel later attempted to clarify her stance, stating that the UK’s immigration system was “not fit for purpose” and that she was “not happy about the high numbers while the Conservatives were in government.”
Migration has been a focal point for Reform UK, helping them gain support at the Conservatives’ expense.
One source within the party commented, “A lot of people are absolutely aghast over Priti’s interview last night and the direction of the party in general.”
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