The African Energy Chamber (AEC), the leading voice of Africa’s energy sector, hosted its Invest in African Energies investor breakfast in Geneva, attracting a large number of European investors, financiers, and commodity traders.
The event reinforced Geneva’s position as a crucial global hub for commodity trading and highlighted Africa’s growing role in the global energy landscape.
The summit commenced with technical presentations by experts from S&P Global Commodity Insights, shedding light on commodity trading, downstream activities, and crude oil trading in West Africa.
A key highlight was the anticipated ramp-up of crude lifts from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery in 2025, which is set to transform the country into a net exporter of gasoline for the first time.
Tanya Stepanova, Associate Director of Commodity Insights at S&P Global said, “In this context, Africa is becoming a very interesting market and a battleground for different regions targeting it as an export market.”
She emphasized the increasing competition among Middle Eastern and Asian companies to expand their presence in Africa’s energy sector.
Meanwhile, global energy markets are witnessing refinery rationalizations, particularly in North America and Europe. Over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity are expected to shut down by 2030, leading to a realignment of global fuel supply chains.
This shift positions Africa as an attractive battleground for international energy players, with Middle Eastern national oil companies (NOCs) seeking to acquire retail and refining assets to solidify their footprint on the continent.
The Dangote refinery’s operational scale-up has already begun altering traditional trade flows. It has not only reduced Nigeria’s reliance on European fuel imports but also positioned the country as a key supplier of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco and naphtha to Asian markets.
Additionally, Nigerian crude is being transported to the Lomé hub off Togo’s coast, further strengthening West Africa’s role in global energy supply chains.
South Africa, sub-Saharan Africa’s largest energy market, is facing slower product growth as domestic refineries shut down.
The country is at a crossroads regarding its fuel supply strategy. With Middle Eastern NOCs reportedly eyeing Shell South Africa’s downstream assets, the market faces two possible futures: dominance by traders or increased Middle Eastern influence.
“In the long term, South Africa has ambitions to revive its refining industry.
“For the country, it’s not just about refining economics it’s also a matter of security of supply.”
Tanya Stepanova, Associate Director of Commodity Insights at S&P Global
She emphasized that 2025 will be a pivotal year for South Africa’s refining sector, determining whether trader dominance or Middle Eastern investments shape its future.
Africa’s Energy Prospects to European Markets
On the Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) front, Africa’s emerging markets are vying for a slice of Europe’s growing energy demand. However, they face stiff competition from new LNG supplies from the United States.
In Mozambique, ExxonMobil is expected to reach a Final Investment Decision (FID) on its Rovuma LNG project by 2026, while TotalEnergies’ Mozambique LNG project is attracting investments exceeding $10 billion.
According Verner Ayukegba, Senior Vice President at AEC, “For LNG, the demand is certainly there, but these projects need long-term commitments from offtakers to materialize.” He emphasized the importance of trade and investment in driving Africa’s energy sector forward.
The event also addressed financing upstream investments, which has been challenging due to the withdrawal of many international banks from fossil fuel projects. However, recent developments indicate a shift, with new financing models emerging.
Large energy companies with substantial balance sheets continue to dominate new upstream exploration, but traders are increasingly playing a role in financing projects.
“When it comes to infill drilling, traders have stepped in to finance projects backed by existing resource bases.
“This trend is expected to grow over the next two to four years.”
Verner Ayukegba, Senior Vice President at AEC
The Invest in African Energies event served as a precursor to the upcoming African Energy Week (AEW) 2025, scheduled for September 29 to October 3 in Cape Town, South Africa.
AEW 2025 aims to position Africa as a global energy champion, focusing on strategic investments and transformative deals that will shape the continent’s energy landscape.
Building on the success of previous editions, AEW continues to be the premier platform for energy partnerships, capital investment, and deal-making in Africa’s energy sector.
With major global players showing interest, Africa is poised to drive forward its energy ambitions and secure its place in the future of global energy markets.
