OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais has challenged the IEA’s recent upward revisions to global oil demand data, highlighting concerns over market interpretation and energy security.

Al Ghais emphasized the recurring nature of these so-called “missing barrels,” stating, “Barrels are never actually missing; it is just that global demand for oil is being materially under-counted.”

He noted that similar discrepancies have been observed since the late 1990s, with each instance leading to upward revisions in demand figures.

According to the latest IEA report, oil consumption in 2022 was actually 260,000 barrels per day (bpd) higher than previously estimated.

The trend continued with demand adjustments of 330,000 bpd for 2023 and 350,000 bpd for 2024. These revisions, OPEC argues, transform previously reported global oil surpluses into deficits, potentially reshaping market dynamics.

Al Ghais warned that miscalculating global supply and demand dynamics could lead to misinterpretations of market trends, with significant consequences for producers, consumers, and the broader global economy.

“This misinterpretation can impact sentiment and market fundamentals.
“It has serious implications for investment decisions, policy direction, and energy security.”
Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General

Moreover, the revisions contradict previous IEA warnings that there is no need for new investments in oil supply. OPEC contends that such reports could undermine energy security by discouraging necessary investments.

OPEC’s concerns extend beyond demand forecasts. Al Ghais noted that the IEA’s May OMR suggests previously reported stockpile levels were overstated, with oil storage tanks now significantly less full than previously assumed.

“At the push of a publishing button, the Agency erased three years’ worth of apparent global oil stock builds.
“Storage tanks are a lot less full than the IEA had been reporting previously, and global balances are much tighter.
Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General

This sudden shift in data effectively turns what was once perceived as a supply surplus into a supply deficit, potentially influencing oil prices and long-term investment trends.

Call for Reliable Energy Data

With the IEA still projecting a supply surplus of around 700,000 bpd for 2025, OPEC is skeptical that this estimate will hold. Al Ghais suggested that another upward revision of demand figures could be inevitable.

“What is clear is that when it comes to the IEA’s ‘missing barrels’ conundrum, a significant upward demand revision is usually the outcome.”
Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General

OPEC also took issue with recent comments by IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, who stated that “data always wins.” Al Ghais responded pointedly, questioning which version of IEA data was considered the most reliable.

“Which IEA data has won on this occasion? Accurate data matters—this is the cog that drives true market sentiment, enables better predictability and market balancing, and provides the appropriate light for future investment.”
Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General

Al Ghais further emphasized the need for greater accuracy in forecasting and retrospective data reconciliation. While acknowledging the challenges of market predictions, he stressed that errors in historical data significantly affect future projections.

“We recognize that forecasting is not an exact science, but historical data—especially from previous years—must be accurate to enable the best forecasts moving forward.”
Haitham Al Ghais, OPEC Secretary General

The discrepancy also raises concerns about the methodology employed by the IEA and its decision-making process.

The OPEC chief questioned why it took so long for the agency to reconcile its data series, especially when the economic and strategic stakes are so high.

As questions of accountability and transparency persist, OPEC is urging a reassessment of historical oil demand calculations to prevent future misjudgments.

The latest revisions have reshaped oil market perspectives, underscoring the long-standing debate between major energy agencies over data integrity and market reliability.

While the IEA maintains that its updated figures reflect the most accurate assessment, OPEC remains cautious about the implications of repeated miscalculations.

As global energy markets continue to evolve, ensuring accurate reporting will remain essential for maintaining stability and investor confidence.