Poland’s National Electoral Commission has declared nationalist Karol Nawrocki the winner of the presidential election.
With all votes counted, the commission said on Monday that Nawrocki, a staunch conservative backed by the opposition, had won 50.89 percent of votes in a tight run-off race against liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski, who took 49.11 percent.
Nawrocki’s candidacy was backed by the right-populist Law and Justice (PiS) party, which ruled Poland until Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s victory in parliamentary elections in late 2023.
Nawrocki, 42, a historian and amateur boxer who ran a national remembrance institute, campaigned on populist promises to ensure economic and social policies favour Poles over other nationalities, including refugees from neighbouring Ukraine.
An early exit poll released on Sunday evening had suggested Trzaskowski was headed to victory before updated polling began to reverse the picture a couple of hours later.
Nawrocki will succeed Andrzej Duda, also aligned with the nationalist conservative Law & Justice (PiS), whose second and final term ends on August 6, 2025.
Duda has been holding up the coalition government’s efforts to reverse changes politicising the judicial system that were introduced by PiS during its 2015-23 term in office, which plunged Poland into a fight with the EU over the rule of law.
Nawrocki’s victory was helped by strong support from the “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) movement in the US.
President Donald Trump welcomed the Polish eurosceptic to the White House, while Homeland Security Secretary, Kristi Noem travelled to Poland last week to back him.
The US has about 10,000 soldiers stationed in Poland, and Noem suggested that military ties could deepen with Nawrocki as president.
Nawrocki’s supporters claim that he will restore “normality” as Trump has done, and MAGA flags have often appeared at Nawrocki’s rallies during the campaign.
Nawrocki has also echoed some of Trump’s language on Ukraine, despite staunch opposition to Russia on Poland’s left and right.
While the President-in-waiting has promised to maintain the country’s support for Ukraine, he has been critical of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, accusing him of taking advantage of allies.
He has also tapped into growing antagonism towards the million or so Ukrainian refugees in Poland, accusing them of taking advantage of Polish generosity, and promising to prioritise Poles for social services such as healthcare and schooling.
Right-wing forces in Europe, who were disappointed by the defeat of nationalist George Simion in Romania’s presidential election last month, have been quick to start celebrating Nawrocki’s win.
Hungarian Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto said on his Facebook page that the result brings a “fresh victory for [European] patriots.”
Nawrocki’s Win Deals Huge Blow To Tusk’s Reform Agenda
Given the President’s veto power, Nawrocki’s victory will make it difficult for the government to pass any big reforms before the 2027 parliamentary election.
Nawrocki’s win will complicate the centrist government’s rule in the increasingly prominent European Union state, given Nawrocki’s pledge to use the presidential veto to block Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s reforms.
While the presidential role is largely ceremonial, it does have some influence over foreign and defence policy, as well as the critical power to veto new legislation. This can only be overturned with a 60% majority in parliament, which Tusk’s government does not have.
Tusk’s time as Prime minister has been marked by difficulties bringing his broad coalition into line, made harder by having an ideologically opposed president in office.
Tusk has also struggled to meet other electoral promises, such as the implementation of reforms to ease access to abortion and improve LGBTQ rights.
According to some Analysts, these unfulfilled promises could make it more difficult for Tusk to continue his term until the next parliamentary election scheduled for late 2027.
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