As warning signs of a potential global recession grow louder, economists are urging Ghana to take proactive steps to shield its economy from looming external shocks.
At the 2025 Stanbic Bank Economic Forum, Qureishi Jibran, Head of Africa Economic Research at Standard Bank, issued a timely warning to the Government of Ghana: deepen the domestic bond market or risk facing dire financial consequences if global headwinds intensify.
According to Mr. Jibran, the current weakening of the U.S. dollar—while providing temporary relief for emerging markets—should not lull policymakers into a false sense of security. Rather, he believes it presents a narrow window of opportunity for countries like Ghana to strengthen their economic resilience.
“We are seeing a bit of a fading of U.S. exceptionalism, which is now resulting in the weaker dollar. But if there’s a global recession—even if that coincides perhaps with a weaker dollar—the dollar index and other safe haven assets will rally. And when that happens, no country will be insulated.”
Qureishi Jibran
Jibran warned that should a global recession materialize, Ghana would face significant fallout—not only from a trade and demand perspective, but also from the instability it could trigger in financial markets. The potential ripple effects, he said, would be felt across Africa, including in economies like Kenya, Egypt, Angola, and Uganda.
Treasury Bills No Longer Enough
A major point of concern raised by Mr. Jibran is Ghana’s continued over-reliance on short-term treasury bills as a primary source of government financing. While treasury instruments offer immediate liquidity, their overuse exposes the country to refinancing risks and high interest burdens.
“It’s important and paramount for the Ghanaian authorities to capitalise now and ensure that they open up their bond market and reduce the burden on treasury bills financing.”
Qureishi Jibran
He emphasized that long-term debt instruments offer greater financial stability and allow governments to plan investments more sustainably. By diversifying its debt profile through the development of a deeper, more liquid domestic bond market, Ghana can reduce its vulnerability to external financing shocks.
A Golden Opportunity in a Weak Dollar
Jibran pointed out that the current global macroeconomic environment is uniquely favourable for emerging market economies looking to broaden their financing strategies. The declining strength of the dollar makes it less expensive for countries like Ghana to issue bonds, particularly those denominated in local currency. “A weaker dollar probably would be positive for markets that have liquid bonds and liquid foreign exchange markets,” he said. “That’s why Ghana must act now.”
The economist urged policymakers to avoid complacency, noting that macroeconomic tides can shift rapidly. What appears to be an opportunity today could turn into a liability tomorrow if action is not taken.
Developing the bond market also sends a strong signal to investors about the country’s commitment to financial discipline and market-oriented reforms. It can serve as a tool for enhancing investor confidence, attracting portfolio investments, and fostering a culture of long-term economic planning.
Moreover, a robust bond market helps the government build a predictable domestic resource pool, reducing dependency on volatile external markets and IMF-led rescue programs.
“With stronger institutions, more transparent pricing, and a wider base of market participants, Ghana can leverage its bond market not just for financing, but for economic transformation.”
Qureishi Jibran
As the threat of recession looms and the U.S. dollar softens, experts like Qureishi Jibran are sounding the alarm—not to induce panic, but to prompt foresight.
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