The Akwatia by-election is shaping up to be a closely contested race, but a fresh poll conducted by Global InfoAnalytics suggests that the pendulum is swinging in favor of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Bernard Bediako Baidoo.
With only three days left before the crucial vote, the NDC hopeful has overtaken the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) Solomon Asumadu, a development that underscores the significance of voter sentiment in the constituency.
Mussa Dankwa, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, confirmed that Baidoo now holds a 53 percent lead in the latest survey under the firm’s committed voter model, compared to Asumadu’s 47 percent.
According to him, the results reflect the preferences of voters who are placing increasing emphasis on development issues and education, particularly among senior high school (SHS) and tertiary student voters who favored the NDC candidate by a wider margin.
NDC’s Superior Strategy
This shift is particularly notable because earlier polls had placed the NPP candidate ahead. The new findings suggest that recent campaign efforts by the NDC’s national leadership may have altered the momentum.
While the initial poll by Global showed the opposition NPP leading the race in the recent past, the recent campaign led by the ruling NDC’s stalwarts, including the Chief of Staff Julius Debrah, National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah, and George Opare Addo, National Youth Organizer, might have contributed to the latest gain for its candidate.
The NDC’s ability to mobilize its base through visible and coordinated efforts appears to have resonated with a portion of the electorate that previously leaned toward the NPP. The focus on development has been central to Baidoo’s campaign, appealing to communities that have long felt sidelined in terms of infrastructure and social services.
Additionally, young voters, particularly those in SHS and tertiary institutions, have demonstrated strong support for Baidoo, citing education as a major factor influencing their choices.
On the other hand, Asumadu and the NPP had entered the campaign with a significant level of optimism, especially following earlier polling that indicated a lead for the party.
However, the narrowing and eventual overtaking by the NDC candidate show how fluid voter allegiances can be in by-election settings. The contest, therefore, remains competitive, with both parties expected to intensify their final push in the days leading to the polls.
Voters’ Commitment
The Global InfoAnalytics poll also provides insights into the level of commitment among voters. By using its committed model, the pollster emphasizes that the figures presented are more likely to represent the minimum vote each candidate can rely on. This suggests that Baidoo’s 53 percent may solidify further if undecided voters shift in his favor or if turnout trends benefit the NDC.
The stakes in Akwatia are high, as by-elections in Ghana often serve as a litmus test for broader national political dynamics. Both the NDC and NPP view the constituency as strategically significant, not just for its symbolic value but also for the momentum it could provide heading into larger national contests.
For the NDC, a win here would reinforce its current standing as the governing party under President John Dramani Mahama, while for the NPP, reclaiming the seat would serve as a morale booster and proof of resilience in opposition.
As the campaigns enter their final stretch, the narratives being pushed by the two parties are becoming sharper. The NDC is leaning on a message of development, inclusivity, and progress in education, while the NPP is expected to double down on its legacy projects and promises of continuity.
The outcome will depend not only on policy preferences but also on voter turnout and the effectiveness of last-minute mobilization efforts.
With three days to go, the Akwatia race remains too close to call with absolute certainty, but the latest numbers clearly show that momentum has shifted toward the NDC. Whether this late surge translates into victory will be determined at the ballot box.
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