A new poll by Global InfoAnalytics for October 2025 shows former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia maintaining a firm lead among New Patriotic Party (NPP) delegates, despite a slight decline in his overall support compared to September.
The findings underscore his continued dominance within the opposition party as it gears up for its presidential primaries scheduled for January 31, 2026, part of efforts to reorganize ahead of the 2028 general elections.
According to the survey, Dr. Bawumia, who led the NPP into the 2024 elections, secured 44% of delegate support in October, down from 47% in September. His closest contender, former Assin Central MP Hon. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, followed with 19%, reflecting a two-point increase over the previous month.
The former Minister for Food and Agriculture, Dr. Bryan Acheampong, came third with 5%, while former Education Minister Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum and former NPP General Secretary Kwabena Agyei Agyapong each polled 1%.
However, the poll reveals that a significant portion of delegates remain either undecided or unwilling to disclose their choices. Fifteen percent of respondents said they had made up their minds but declined to indicate their preferred candidate, while another 15% were still undecided.
Notably, the proportion of undecided delegates fell sharply from 27% in September to 15% in October, suggesting that more delegates are firming up their positions. At the same time, the share of undisclosed voters rose from 4% to 15%, a trend reminiscent of pre-2023 primary patterns, where secrecy around delegate preferences increased as voting day approached.
Runoff Scenario Between Bawumia and Kennedy Agyapong
In a hypothetical runoff scenario between Dr. Bawumia and Kennedy Agyapong, the poll found no significant shift in voter behavior. Dr. Bawumia would secure 46% of the vote, compared to Agyapong’s 23%. Fifteen percent of delegates declined to disclose their preference in a runoff, while 16% said they were undecided.
A closer analysis shows that Dr. Bawumia retains 96% of his first-round supporters in a runoff, while Kennedy retains 92%, giving Bawumia a 4% retention advantage.
The data also sheds light on how votes from other aspirants could realign in a runoff. Of those who initially supported Dr. Bryan Acheampong, 31% indicated they would vote for Dr. Bawumia, while 70% would shift to Kennedy Agyapong.
Among Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum’s supporters, 39% each would back Bawumia and Kennedy. Meanwhile, 42% of those backing Kwabena Agyapong would support Bawumia, compared to 35% for Kennedy.
When the poll analyzed the voting intentions of delegates who participated in the 2023 NPP presidential primaries, Dr. Bawumia retained 72% of his previous supporters, while 12% had switched to Kennedy Agyapong.
Thirteen percent were undecided, and 3% declined to disclose their preference. Kennedy Agyapong retained 70% of his 2023 backers, with 15% switching to Bawumia, 11% undecided, and 4% undisclosed.
Among delegates who did not vote in 2023, support was evenly split—14% each for Bawumia and Kennedy—while a large 62% remained undecided, signaling a crucial swing group that could shape the final outcome.
Bawumia Dominates all Regions
Regionally, Dr. Bawumia maintains a strong advantage across all blocs. In the northern regions, he commands 56% support against Kennedy’s 15%. In the Akan regions—traditionally a decisive base for NPP contests—Bawumia leads with 43% to Kennedy’s 22%.
The former Vice President also enjoys solid backing in the swing regions, polling 39% compared to Kennedy’s 15%, while in the Volta/Oti bloc, Bawumia leads with 41% to Kennedy’s 16%.
Despite his broad lead, the survey highlights several competitive regional contests. The race is especially tight in the Ashanti Region, the party’s stronghold, where Bawumia leads with 39%, Kennedy follows with 28%, and Bryan Acheampong holds 9%.
Both the undisclosed and undecided groups stand at 9% each, leaving room for late movement. In the Eastern Region, the results mirror Ashanti’s trends: Bawumia leads with 38%, Kennedy 27%, Bryan Acheampong 9%, with 10% undisclosed and 10% undecided.
In the Central Region, Bawumia enjoys a more comfortable lead, with 50% support compared to Kennedy’s 16%. Eleven percent of respondents in the region declined to reveal their choice, while another 11% remained undecided. Meanwhile, in Greater Accra, the race appears to be tightening.
Dr Bawumia leads with 36%, Kennedy follows at 14%, but a combined 46% of delegates are either undecided or have withheld their preferences, suggesting a potentially volatile urban electorate.
The October poll also captured changes in candidate favorability ratings. Kennedy Agyapong’s net approval rating rose by four percentage points, while Dr. Bawumia’s slipped by two.
Dr. Bryan Acheampong’s favorability improved by two points, confirming incremental gains among Bawumia’s main challengers. Analysts at Global InfoAnalytics describe these shifts as signs of a “gradually tightening race,” though Bawumia’s support remains unmatched across the board.
The survey, conducted between October 21 and 23, 2025, employed Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) and used random probability sampling. The sample size of 2,643 delegates covered 270 out of 276 constituencies nationwide.
However, it excluded Tempane in the Upper East Region, Daboya/Mankarigu in Savannah, Gushegu in the Northern Region, Tema Central in Greater Accra, Komenda-Edina-Eguafo-Abirem in Central, and Fomena in Ashanti. It achieved a 99% confidence level and a ±2.44% margin of error.
While Dr. Bawumia continues to command a commanding lead heading into the NPP’s January 2026 primaries, the gradual narrowing of margins and the rise in Kennedy Agyapong’s approval ratings suggest that the contest may become more competitive in the months ahead.
With many delegates still undecided or unwilling to reveal their choices, the outcome could hinge on late shifts in loyalty and regional mobilization as the party seeks a new face to lead its comeback in 2028.
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