A new March 2026 tracking poll by Global InfoAnalytics has revealed a strong regional shift in the National Democratic Congress leadership race, with Minister for Education and MP for Tamale South, Hon. Haruna Iddrisu, emerging as the dominant figure across the five northern regions.
The analysis, presented by the Executive for Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, highlighted a clear lead for Haruna Iddrisu in Northern, North East, Savannah, Upper East, and Upper West regions.
According to the data, Haruna Iddrisu commands 42 percent support in these regions, significantly ahead of his closest competitor, Vice President Professor Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang, who records 16 percent. Johnson Asiedu Nketia follows with 15 percent, while Dr Cassiel Ato Forson trails with 9 percent.
Mussa Dankwah noted that the results reflect a strong regional base for Haruna Iddrisu, positioning him as a leading contender within the party in the northern belt.
Broad Support Across Voter Groups
The poll indicates that Haruna Iddrisu’s dominance extends across all major voter categories, including supporters of rival political parties and undecided voters. He leads Ato Forson by 34 percentage points overall, demonstrating a significant margin in the region.
Among New Patriotic Party voters, Haruna Iddrisu holds a 28 point advantage over Ato Forson. His lead widens further among floating voters, where he is ahead by 36 points.
He also records strong margins among supporters of other political parties and among respondents who declined to disclose their affiliations, leading by 24 and 41 points, respectively.
These figures suggest that Haruna Iddrisu’s appeal cuts across political lines, reinforcing his position as a formidable figure in the ruling National Democratic Congress’s internal contest.
Vice Presidential Influence and Regional Appeal
The poll also highlights the impact of political alignments and public perception on voter preferences. Professor Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang’s performance, placing second with 16 percent, is seen as a reflection of her association and visibility in the region.
Mussa Dankwah noted that Haruna Iddrisu’s positioning and engagement within the party structure have strengthened his influence, contributing to his strong showing in the northern regions. The data suggests that his regional roots and political network continue to play a significant role in shaping voter sentiment.
At the same time, the relatively lower support for Ato Forson in the region indicates that his influence is more concentrated in the southern parts of the country, highlighting the importance of regional dynamics in the NDC race.
Head to Head Contests Show Mixed Dynamics
While Haruna Iddrisu dominates the overall race, the poll reveals a more competitive dynamic in a head-to-head contest between Ato Forson and Asiedu Nketia, the two top runners in the ruling party’s flagbearership race.
In this scenario, the race is described as closely balanced, with neither candidate establishing a decisive lead. According to Mussa Dankwa Ato Forson holds a slight advantage among NPP voters, while Asiedu Nketia leads marginally among NDC supporters.
Among floating voters and United Party aligned voters, the contest remains evenly matched. Asiedu Nketia records a small edge among supporters of other parties, while Ato Forson leads among those who do not disclose their affiliations.
These results suggest that while both candidates have pockets of support, neither has achieved the level of dominance seen by Haruna Iddrisu in the region.
Voter Uncertainty and Strategic Implications
A notable finding from the poll is that nearly 25 percent of respondents in the northern regions remain undecided. This level of uncertainty indicates that a significant portion of the electorate has yet to align with any of the candidates.
Analysts suggest that this could reflect dissatisfaction or hesitation among voters, particularly in scenarios where Haruna Iddrisu is not the leading candidate. The data implies that his absence from a final ticket could influence voter behavior and potentially shift support patterns.
The poll also shows that in a direct contest between Haruna Iddrisu and Ato Forson, the former maintains a commanding lead, further reinforcing his dominance in the region. This outcome underscores the importance of candidate selection in shaping the party’s prospects in the northern belt.
Outlook for the NDC Race
The findings by the Global InfoAnalytics point to a complex and evolving race within the NDC, characterized by strong regional variations in support. While Ato Forson has shown strength in other parts of the country, Haruna Iddrisu’s dominance in the northern regions adds a new dimension to the contest.
Mussa Dankwah described the situation as one that reflects deeper political dynamics within the party. “The data reveals underlying sentiments that are not always openly expressed,” he noted, suggesting that voter preferences may continue to evolve as the race progresses.
The performance of Asiedu Nketia also highlights potential challenges, as shifts in support among different groups indicate possible realignments within the party.
As the NDC prepares for the 2028 elections, the interplay between regional strengths and national appeal will be a key factor in determining the eventual nominee. The northern regions, given their importance, are likely to remain a critical battleground in the contest.
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