Renowned Pollster and Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwa, has warned that the New Patriotic Party faces an uphill battle heading into the 2028 elections, based on regional polling data comparing the performance of NDC frontrunners Ato Forson and Johnson Asiedu Nketia against Dr Mahamudu Bawumia across regions won by both parties in 2024.
Mr Dankwa’s analysis focused on how current poll numbers for potential NDC candidates measure against President John Dramani Mahama’s actual 2024 performance across the 13 regions the NDC won in that election.
“Comparing Ato Forson and Asiedu Nketia poll performance in the 13 regions NDC won in 2024 and how Mahama and Bawumia performed in the actual 2024 elections, the poll shows that JDM won those regions combined with 64%, DMB 34%, representing 30 points margin”.
Mussa Dankwa, renowned Pollster and Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics
Ato Forson Outperforms Mahama’s 2024 Numbers
According to Mr Dankwa, current polling suggests Ato Forson holds an even stronger position in the NDC’s traditional strongholds than President Mahama achieved in the actual 2024 election.
“Today, across the same 13 regions, in the race between Ato Forson and Dr Bawumia, Ato Forson has 63% and Dr Bawumia 31%, representing 32 points margin, meaning Ato Forson is currently performing better than JDM in the 13 regions NDC won in 2024.”
Mussa Dankwa, renowned Pollster and Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics
By contrast, Mussa Dankwa’s data revealed a notably weaker performance for the ruling National Democratic Congress National Chairman in the same regions, falling well short of the margin President Mahama secured in 2024.
“When compared with the performance of Johnson Asiedu Nketia, the poll shows that Asiedu Nketia leads with 59% and DMB 48%, representing 11 points margin for Nketia. The poll therefore shows that while Ato Forson is outperforming JDM in 2024, Asiedu Nketia is underperforming JDM significantly in the regions NDC won in 2024”.
Mussa Dankwa, renowned Pollster and Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics
NPP’s Own Strongholds Show Signs of Erosion
Turning to the three regions the NPP won in 2024, Mr Dankwa’s data revealed a significant erosion of Dr Bawumia’s previous dominance in these areas, regardless of which NDC candidate he faces in current polling.
“In the 3 regions NPP won in the 2024, the actual results showed that Dr Bawumia won with 60% while JDM secured 34%, representing 26 points margin. But in the current poll, against Ato Forson, Dr Bawumia leads Ato Forson 47% to 44%, representing 3 points margin compared to 26 points against JDM in 2024.”
Mussa Dankwa, renowned Pollster and Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics
He noted a similar, though slightly less dramatic, narrowing when Bawumia is matched against Asiedu Nketia in these same regions. “Against Asiedu Nketia, Bawumia leads 48% and Asiedu Nketia 42%, representing 6 points margin,” he said.
A Warning for the NPP’s 2028 Prospects
Mussa Dankwa summarised his findings with a stark assessment of the NPP’s current standing, arguing that the party appears to be losing ground across the political map regardless of which NDC candidate ultimately emerges as its 2028 challenger.
“The NPP needs to win the 2028 but the poll shows that the party is significantly underperforming everywhere, in the regions they lost in 2024 and in those they won in 2024. Both Ato Forson and Asiedu Nketia are outperforming JDM’s 2024 performance in the regions NPP won”.
Mussa Dankwa, renowned Pollster and Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics
He concluded with a direct warning about the scale of the challenge facing the NPP as the 2028 race approaches. “If the polls are to be accurate, though we have years to go, it shows NPP has an uphill battle ahead whether it is Ato Forson or Asiedu Nketia, the two NDC front runners,” he said.
Detailed Regional Breakdown for Ato Forson
Mussa Dankwa provided further granular detail on the July 2026 longitudinal poll results for each potential candidate. In a nationwide matchup, Ato Forson holds a wide lead over Bawumia, with the poll placing him at 57.5 percent against Bawumia’s 35.3 percent.
Within the 13 regions the NDC won in 2024, namely Ahafo, Bono, Bono East, Central, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, Western and Western North, Ato Forson’s lead widens considerably, reaching 63.1 percent compared to Bawumia’s 30.6 percent.
However, in the three regions the NPP secured in 2024, namely Ashanti, Eastern and North East, the race tightens dramatically, with Bawumia holding only a slender edge over Ato Forson at 46.5 percent to 43.6 percent, a virtual dead heat.
Detailed Regional Breakdown for Asiedu Nketia
The poll data for Asiedu Nketia showed a similar overall pattern, though with notably different margins in NDC-held regions. Nationally, Asiedu Nketia leads Bawumia 54.3 percent to 37.1 percent.
Within the same 13 NDC-won regions, Asiedu Nketia’s lead expands to 59.3 percent against Bawumia’s 32.5 percent. In the three NPP strongholds of Ashanti, Eastern and North East, Bawumia maintains a clearer advantage over Asiedu Nketia, leading 47.9 percent to 42 percent.
Taken together, Dankwa’s regional breakdown paints a consistent picture across both potential NDC candidates, indicating that the NPP faces significant challenges not only in regions it has traditionally lost but increasingly within its own historical strongholds as well.
While Ato Forson appears to pose the stronger overall threat to Bawumia based on current polling, particularly given his performance exceeding President Mahama’s own 2024 numbers in NDC territory, both candidates show the capacity to erode NPP’s advantage in regions the party has historically depended on to remain competitive.
For the NPP, these findings suggest that rebuilding its position ahead of 2028 will require addressing vulnerabilities across the country rather than focusing narrowly on regions where the party has traditionally struggled, given that even its core strongholds now show signs of competitive erosion against both leading NDC contenders.
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