Ghana’s public debt rose to GH¢733.9 billion in July 2026, equivalent to 45.9 percent of gross domestic product, reversing the slight decline recorded in June and bringing debt dynamics back into focus as the government seeks to preserve the gains from restructuring and fiscal consolidation.
The Bank of Ghana’s September Summary of Economic and Financial Data shows that the debt stock increased by GH¢14.4 billion from GH¢719.5 billion in June. Compared with GH¢641.1 billion at the end of 2025, the stock has risen by GH¢92.8 billion, or about 14.5 percent, while the debt-to-GDP ratio has moved from 44.7 percent to 45.9 percent.
Ghana’s 45 percent debt anchor is a statutory medium-term target to be achieved by 2034, not an immediate ceiling, so a July ratio of 45.9 percent does not by itself constitute a breach.
The more important question is whether the renewed increase can be contained while government maintains primary surpluses, manages large refinancing needs and directs borrowing towards productive uses.
Domestic Debt Remains the Largest Component
Domestic debt increased to GH¢396.7 billion in July from GH¢391.1 billion in June, a monthly rise of GH¢5.6 billion. Since December, however, domestic debt has expanded by GH¢62.9 billion from GH¢333.8 billion, reinforcing earlier concerns over the rising domestic debt burden.
It now represents 24.8 percent of GDP and about 54 percent of the total public debt stock. External debt moved differently. The dollar value edged down from US$28.9 billion in June to US$28.8 billion in July, but its cedi value rose from GH¢328.4 billion to GH¢337.2 billion.
The divergence highlights the valuation effect of exchange-rate movements: foreign-currency debt can rise in cedi terms even when the underlying dollar stock is broadly stable or falling.
The July increase in total debt cannot accurately be described as being driven only by fresh domestic borrowing. Both the increase in domestic obligations and the higher cedi valuation of external liabilities contributed to the monthly rise.
The broader seven-month pattern still shows domestic debt carrying more of the adjustment: since December it has risen faster than external debt in cedi terms. That increases the importance of auction strategy, maturity management and investor demand as the government balances debt service with financing for public investment.
Fiscal Position Still Shows a Primary Surplus
The debt increase is occurring alongside a stronger fiscal position than Ghana recorded during the crisis years. By July, the broad budget recorded a primary surplus of 1.4 percent of GDP on a commitment basis, while the overall commitment balance stood at a deficit of 0.2 percent of GDP. Net domestic financing was equivalent to 1.1 percent of GDP.
The primary-surplus figure is close to the current annual fiscal rule of at least 1.5 percent of GDP, but seven-month data cannot establish full-year compliance. Revenue performance, expenditure commitments, arrears control and financing decisions during the remaining months will determine the final outcome.
This is where the newly operational Independent Fiscal Council becomes relevant. Its mandate includes assessing compliance with Ghana’s fiscal rules and examining whether headline improvements in debt and deficits are supported by durable public-finance management.
45% Anchor Should Not Be Read as a Monthly Limit
The movement to 45.9 percent of GDP may attract attention because the government has repeatedly highlighted the 45 percent debt ratio as an important fiscal benchmark. The law, however, requires Ghana to bring public debt to 45 percent of GDP or lower by 2034. Current monthly movements should therefore be assessed against the longer debt trajectory rather than treated as an automatic violation.
The IMF’s latest debt sustainability assessment similarly describes Ghana’s debt risk as moderate rather than low and stresses that the improvement remains vulnerable to commodity-price shocks, contingent liabilities and refinancing pressures.
Large restructured domestic bond maturities falling due in 2027 and 2028 make liquidity planning especially important even as headline debt indicators improve.
Debt Composition Will Shape the Next Phase
For households and businesses, public debt matters through its effect on taxes, government spending, interest costs and the availability of domestic financing. A growing local debt market can reduce dependence on foreign-currency borrowing, but sustained government demand for domestic funds can also influence yields, bank portfolios and the allocation of credit across the economy.
The July numbers therefore do not signal a return to Ghana’s previous debt crisis. They do show that the post-restructuring period has moved into a more demanding phase: debt sustainability will increasingly depend not only on reducing ratios, but on controlling the cost and maturity of borrowing, protecting fiscal surpluses and ensuring that new debt supports growth capable of expanding the revenue base.
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