UN Women has warned that an additional 11.7 million women and girls could face food insecurity by the end of 2026 as escalating tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz drive up food, energy and transport costs and place further pressure on livelihoods and household resources.
The warning is contained in a new UN Women analysis examining the potential food-security consequences of the Middle East escalation for women and girls across 28 countries. The analysis estimates that women and girls could account for 53% of the additional 22 million people who may face food insecurity by the end of the year under the scenarios examined.
The estimate adds to the 208 million women and girls already experiencing food insecurity or undernourishment across the countries covered by the analysis, highlighting the potential for further economic and supply-chain disruption to widen existing inequalities.
UN Women stressed that the figures are scenario-based estimates rather than forecasts, reflecting potential consequences if disruptions to energy and global trade continue to affect food prices, incomes and access to essential resources.
According to the organisation, the disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could have consequences far beyond energy markets because the waterway plays a major role in international trade. Rising energy prices can increase the cost of transporting food, while higher fertilizer costs can raise agricultural production expenses and eventually place additional pressure on food prices.
UN Women Deputy Executive Director Nyaradzayi Gumbonzvanda stated that the consequences of food shortages are not distributed equally within households, with women frequently absorbing the burden when resources become constrained.
“We know, as a matter of fact, that when food becomes scarce, women eat less and last. They often shift to less nutritious diets or skip meals altogether to prioritize the needs of others.
“Gender inequalities dictate who has access to food and the resources to obtain it. Therefore, investing in women and girls is a sure way of ensuring the well-being of families and communities.”
Nyaradzayi Gumbonzvanda
The analysis places the emerging food-security risks within a wider pattern of gender inequality, showing that the impact of a global or regional economic shock can vary significantly depending on women’s access to employment, financial services, land and other productive resources.
Countries with larger populations could record the highest absolute numbers of women and girls facing additional food insecurity. However, UN Women identified South Sudan, Sudan, Haiti, Yemen and Palestine among countries where the risks could be particularly concentrated because multiple vulnerabilities overlap.
In South Sudan, the additional number of women and girls who could face food insecurity under the scenario represents around 14 per cent, or approximately one in seven, of the country’s female population. This is the highest proportion among the countries analysed.
Lebanon records the second-highest proportion, with the additional number of women and girls potentially facing food insecurity representing nearly 4 per cent of its female population.
In Afghanistan, women and girls are estimated to account for 60 per cent of people who could face food insecurity. In Yemen, they could account for more than 57 per cent, while in Sudan the proportion is nearly 56 per cent.
These figures illustrate how food insecurity intersects with existing economic and social inequalities rather than affecting households uniformly.
Rising Costs Threaten Women’s Economic Security
The potential food-security shock is closely connected to women’s position in labour markets and their limited access to financial resources.
UN Women noted that in Egypt, Iraq, Palestine, Sudan and Syria, around 80% of women are outside the labour force. In Afghanistan and Yemen, the proportion rises to approximately 95%.
Limited participation in paid employment can reduce women’s ability to compensate when food and other household costs rise. Where women are employed, the nature of that employment can also leave them vulnerable to economic disruption.
More than 80% of employed women are in vulnerable employment in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Haiti, Mali and South Sudan, according to the analysis.
In addition, UN Women noted that access to bank accounts and mobile money services can provide households with a buffer during periods of economic stress by allowing people to save, receive remittances or cash assistance, and access credit.
However, many women remain excluded from these services.
In Iraq, Lebanon, Pakistan, and Yemen, fewer than one in five women own a bank or mobile money account. The lack of access can make it more difficult for women to respond when prices rise or household incomes decline.
The situation demonstrates that food insecurity is not solely a question of whether food is available. Access to income, financial services, land, credit and productive assets can determine whether individuals and households are able to obtain food when prices increase.
The risks are significant in countries already affected by conflict, displacement, economic instability or humanitarian crises.
South Sudan and Sudan, for example, face overlapping vulnerabilities that can magnify the effect of higher food and agricultural costs. Yemen and Palestine similarly face food-security pressures within broader humanitarian and political crises.
UN Women is therefore calling for responses that move beyond emergency food assistance alone.
The organisation is urging governments, humanitarian agencies and development partners to combine food and cash assistance with nutrition, protection, livelihood and agricultural support. It is also calling for women to have greater access to land, credit, services and other productive assets.
UN Women wants resources directed towards areas where women and girls face multiple, overlapping risks and delivered before key agricultural seasons where possible.
Early intervention, it argues, could help prevent temporary economic shocks from developing into deeper and more prolonged food insecurity.
