Author: Dr. John Osae-Kwapong, Democracy and Development Fellow, CDD-Ghana, and Project Director, the Democracy Project
In recent times, I regularly read with intrigue the sentiments of some fellow citizens in our public spaces, who respond to emerging governance issues with the phrase “if this had happened in our time…” The blanks are filled with interesting narratives.
Upon reflection, the sentiment seems to suggest that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) government was judged harshly throughout its tenure in office, while its successor appears to be enjoying a favorable public reception.
I do not write to delegitimize the feelings and perceptions of anyone. I write to offer another perspective. Afrobarometer data from 2017 to 2024, and a CDD-Ghana pre-election survey from 2020, tells a very instructive story – goodwill erodes, and any government can experience it.
The Beginning
In Round 7 (2017) of the Afrobarometer survey, the public mood was very positive. Here are a few selected highlights. Eighty percent (80%) of Ghanaians were satisfied with how democracy was working.
Seventy-one percent (71%) said the government was managing the economy well, and 67 percent (67%) said it was fighting corruption well. Nearly half (48%) trusted the president “a lot.”
Among respondents who identified themselves as NPP partisans, nine out of ten (86%) approved of economic management and eight out of ten (83%) of the government’s effort to fight corruption.
Most importantly, eighty-two percent (82%) approved of the president’s performance. Against the backdrop of the 2016 election results, the public sentiment showed Ghanaians were keeping the faith with the NPP.
The Initial Crack
By Afrobarometer Round 8 (2019), the first cracks began to show. For example, the percentage of Ghanaians approving of the fight against corruption dropped by twenty-six percentage points.
Further, approval of economic management dropped from seventy-one (71%) to fifty-two (52%) percent. Trust in the president “a lot” slid from 48 to 33 percent, and the share saying corruption had increased rose from thirty-six percent in 2017 to fifty-eight percent in 2019.
But keep in mind that about half of the population still rated the economy positively. And there were some bright spots. On education, eight out of ten (75%) rated the government’s efforts at addressing education needs well. So, while citizens registered some initial discontent, all was not lost.
The Loss
The turning point. In Afrobarometer Round 9(2022), only eighteen percent (18%) rated economic management positively, approval of the anti-corruption effort stood at fifteen percent (15%), and trust in the president “a lot” dropped by as many as thirty-four points comparing 2017 to 2022.
By Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024), the loss of goodwill was cemented. Take these two sentiments – trust in the ruling party “a lot” (10%), and approval of the president’s performance (32%) – and one gets an idea of what was to come.
I often say that Afrobarometer Round 9 (2022) was the first clear sign that the ruling party was in political trouble as the country headed into the 2024 elections. The trajectory is clear – political goodwill was high in 2017, started to erode by 2019, was gone by 2022 and was reinforced in 2024.
The 2020 Lesson
Between the initial crack and the eventual loss of political goodwill is a story worth telling because it offers lessons to any incumbent government. In October 2020, in the run-up to the election, CDD-Ghana conducted a pre-election survey.
It is a different survey in that it was testing the sentiments of Ghanaians just before an election. However, it asked several of the same questions from the Afrobarometer survey.
Here are some of the things Ghanaians said. Six out of ten (61%) Ghanaians said the government was handling the economy well, eight out of ten (76%) approved the government’s efforts at addressing the education needs of the people, and seventy-one percent (71%) approved of the president’s job performance.
When asked about voting intentions, 53% said they would vote NPP. Compare this to what citizens were saying in 2019 (Afrobarometer Round 9). And as we all witnessed, the party was reelected in the 2020 election.
My observation is very simple. Ghanaian sentiments showed cracks between 2017 and 2019, and yet by 2020, it offered the government a chance at redemption. The handling of the COVID-19 pandemic contributed largely to this.
My larger point, though, is this – goodwill is not withdrawn at once. Ghanaians extend credit where they can, but within reasonable limits. In the case of the NPP, it was gone by 2024.
In conclusion, this is a reminder that Ghanaian voters do not pull the trigger at the first sign of trouble. They exercise patience, but that should not be taken for granted. For governments, a second chance is possible but not automatic.
Whoever holds office now has been handed a new lease of political goodwill. It is being spent. I wait to see what judgements Ghanaians will render in Afrobarometer Round 11.
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