Dr. John Osae-Kwapong, Democracy and Development Fellow, CDD-Ghana, and Project Director, the Democracy Project

The 2028 election is about two years away. Dr. Bawumia, the former Vice-President, is the New Patriotic Party’s candidate. What remains unsettled is who will face him for the National Democratic Congress (NDC). I expect the NDC to choose its flagbearer by the end of 2027, which will give observers something more concrete against which to weigh Dr. Bawumia’s prospects.

A September 2026 poll by Global Info Analytics found that two frequently mentioned NDC contenders, Finance Minister Dr Ato Forson and party Chairman Asiedu Nketia, each led Dr. Bawumia in a hypothetical matchup.

For now, it is the only poll offering an early read on the race. Once the NDC settles on a candidate, I expect more polling, from Global Info Analytics and others, to give us a clearer picture.

Dr. Bawumia’s Chances

Dr. Bawumia emerged from a heavy defeat in 2024, which makes it easy to write off his chances in 2028. But I maintain that any NPP candidate would have lost that election. A frank assessment of the political landscape pointed to a turnover: the national mood was anti-NPP, and the country had reached the end of its eight-year turnover cycle.

Even in 2008, when the economy and political mood (Afrobarometer Round 4, 2008) favored the incumbent NPP, the NDC wrested power in a very close election that went to a runoff. I see three openings that Dr. Bawumia can explore.

The first is that the NDC will present a first-time candidate, and since 1996, no first-time candidate has won on a first try. The one exception is John Mahama in 2012, who contested as an incumbent after only five months in office.

The second is NDC governance missteps. I accept that the economy has moved from recovery to stability [check key economic indicators], and an economy with indicators trending in the right direction matters.

Still, some discontent may persist over how that stability translates into everyday bread-and-butter concerns. Missteps in fighting corruption within the government, or in handling galamsey in a way consistent with the 2024 campaign rhetoric, could become pressure points for voters.

The third is Ghanaians’ support for key NPP policy initiatives. The anti-NPP mood of 2024 had an intriguing exception. Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024) shows that Free SHS, Planting for Food and Jobs, One District One Factory, and One Village One Dam each commanded the support of at least six in ten Ghanaians, even amid strong dissatisfaction with governance.

These initiatives had their challenges, but the support was real. A message built not on these specific programs but on the broader claim that the NPP under Dr. Bawumia can design and deliver policies that earn Ghanaians’ trust could therefore resonate.

The Challenges

But no prospect comes without challenges. Dr. Bawumia’s enduring challenge is a legacy problem: he was vice-president of an administration that ended amid an anti-incumbent mood even stronger than the one behind the 2016 turnover. How does he distance himself from those truly responsible for that mood without alienating others who served in the administration?

Or how does he fully embrace the administration’s record, especially the key policy initiatives I described above that won the hearts of many Ghanaians, without continuing to pay the electoral price for the decisions and events that caused real hardship which were probably outside his control?

It is a difficult dilemma with no easy answers, since each path carries political rewards and risks. But Dr. Bawumia is an intelligent man, and I am confident that his reading of the political temperature, both within the party and beyond it, will guide him to a sound resolution.

Reconciling the prospect and challenges

Dr. Bawumia brings strong qualities to the race: academic credentials, technocratic capacity, governance ideas worth exploring for Ghana, an understanding of the country’s socio-economic challenges, and the political lessons he learned as vice-president.

I believe a Bawumia presidency has the potential to move Ghana’s development needle forward. But he must articulate the vision in a way that allows the Ghanaian voter to make peace with the pinch points that created the anti-NPP mood in 2024, and to reach a place of reconciliation that says, “I am ready to give the man a chance.”

Not an easy sell, but it is where his own slogan, “it is possible,” becomes an asset. There is a Dr. Bawumia, though, whom I want to see on the campaign trail, and I have said this before: the man who gave the concession speech the morning after the election, long before the Electoral Commission declared a victor.

That morning, I observed a statesman putting country first and speaking without the constraints of partisanship. Of course, as his party’s candidate, he cannot shy away from partisan rhetoric, but there was something politically refreshing about that, Dr. Bawumia.