The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global food price shock within the next six to 12 months, as disruptions to energy, fertiliser and shipping routes begin to ripple through already fragile food systems.
The UN agency stated that the situation is no longer a temporary logistics disruption but a structural shock to global agrifood markets, with rising transport costs and constrained supply chains already feeding into higher food prices worldwide.
It also noted that food inflation pressures are building, with its Food Price Index rising for a third consecutive month in April.
FAO Chief Economist, Maximo Torero, indicated that the time has come to “start seriously thinking about how to increase the absorption capacity of countries, how to increase their resilience to this choke, so that we start to minimize the potential impacts.”
He added that coordinated action between governments, international financial institutions, the private sector and UN agencies will be essential to prevent a deeper crisis.
FAO warned that key decisions taken now on fertiliser use, imports, financing and crop planning will determine whether the current pressures evolve into a severe global food price crisis within months.
It also highlighted that the shock is already unfolding in stages, beginning with energy and fertiliser disruptions and moving through to lower agricultural yields and rising food inflation.
According to David Laborde, Director of FAO’s Agrifood Economics Division, mitigating these impacts will require shifting to alternative land and sea routes, including via the eastern Arabian Peninsula, western Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea.
He further stated that these routes have limited capacity, making it critical to avoid export restrictions by major producers, adding that, “this is especially critical for safeguarding humanitarian food flows.”
With climate risks such as potential El Niño conditions adding further uncertainty, the FAO highlighted that the window for preventive action is narrowing, urging immediate international coordination to stabilise food systems and prevent a wider crisis from emerging.
FAO Outlines Multi-Stage Global Plan to Tackle Strait of Hormuz Food Shock Risks
Moreover, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has set out an extensive package of policy recommendations aimed at helping countries withstand the growing risks linked to the Strait of Hormuz crisis, warning that coordinated action is urgently needed across short-, medium- and long-term horizons to prevent a deepening global food emergency.
The proposals come amid rising concerns that disruption to one of the world’s most critical shipping and energy corridors could ripple through food systems worldwide, driving up prices, constraining fertiliser supplies and undermining agricultural production in already vulnerable regions.
FAO’s calls for immediate steps to stabilise global food and input flows, alongside structural reforms designed to strengthen resilience against future shocks.
In the short term, the agency urges governments to rapidly secure alternative land and sea trade routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, acknowledging that while such measures cannot fully offset the scale of disruption, they could help reduce pressure on supply chains.
It also calls for the avoidance of export restrictions, particularly on energy, fertilisers and agricultural inputs, warning that such policies risk amplifying global shortages.
FAO further recommends that food aid be exempted from trade curbs to ensure humanitarian corridors remain open, while encouraging emergency farming interventions such as intercropping cereals with legumes to reduce dependence on nitrogen-based fertilisers.
The organization also stresses the importance of activating targeted social protection systems, drawing on successful models in Latin America, and cautions against blanket subsidies, which it says can strain public finances and disproportionately benefit higher-income groups.
Instead, it advocates for digitally enabled assistance programmes designed to reach vulnerable rural households and smallholder farmers, particularly in Africa, with greater efficiency and precision.
For the medium term, FAO highlights the need to avoid policies that increase biofuel demand during periods of food stress, warning that competition between food and fuel markets could worsen shortages.
The organization further proposes linking agricultural lending to guaranteed offtake agreements with processors and buyers, as well as expanding digital farmer registries and mobile money systems to speed up disbursement of support. Countries are also encouraged to integrate informal farmers into cooperatives and associations to improve access to finance and formalise agricultural systems.
Looking further ahead, FAO’s long-term strategy focuses on transforming global food systems to reduce vulnerability to chokepoint disruptions. It calls for the diversification of ports, trade corridors, storage and logistics networks, alongside the development of regional reserves and improved transport resilience.
The agency also recommends accelerated investment in irrigation systems powered by renewable energy, particularly solar and electric solutions to replace diesel dependency.
Innovation is central to the long-term vision, with FAO urging the creation of dedicated funds to support green ammonia, biostimulants, improved crop genetics and fertiliser efficiency technologies.
While such advances may take several years to fully scale, the organisation argues they are essential for building lasting resilience.
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