The UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan has sounded the alarm over a deteriorating situation ahead of the country’s first national elections since independence, warning that renewed fighting and political fractures could undermine safeguards designed to prevent a repeat of the atrocities committed between 2013 and 2018.
According to the UN Commission, multiple warning signs associated with atrocity crimes were converging across South Sudan, including renewed violence, weakened institutions, entrenched impunity, exclusionary governance, corruption, shrinking civic space and inflammatory rhetoric.
The warning comes as violence has resumed in several parts of the country, particularly in Upper Nile, Jonglei and Unity states, while clashes and civilian deaths have also been reported in Western and Central Equatoria states.
According to the Commission, a total of 407 ceasefire violations were recorded between August 2025 and January 2026.
The renewed violence is unfolding against the backdrop of South Sudan’s preparations for national elections, a long-awaited political milestone for a country that gained independence in 2011 after decades of devastating conflict.
But rather than viewing the elections solely as an opportunity for democratic renewal, the Commission has warned that holding them without adequate political, security and institutional safeguards could deepen existing divisions and increase the risk of genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing.
“Multiple risk factors for atrocity crimes are converging. The window to prevent a return to the scale of atrocities and displacement South Sudan endured between 2013–2018 is closing, but it has not yet completely shut.”
UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan
The assessment places South Sudan at a critical crossroads, with the international community being urged to act before political competition and renewed fighting combine to produce another cycle of mass violence.
Fifteen years after independence, the country continues to struggle with the political and security consequences of the civil war that erupted in December 2013. Although the major parties committed in 2018 to the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan, significant elements of the peace agreement remain unimplemented.
The Commission noted that almost half of the agreement’s key provisions have yet to be implemented, including the unification of the country’s security forces.
The failure to establish fully unified security institutions has left South Sudan vulnerable to renewed armed confrontation at a time when political tensions are also intensifying.
It warned that “rushing to elections” without essential safeguards could further destabilise the country rather than provide a peaceful mechanism for resolving political differences.
The situation has also been compounded by a “worsening political, security, humanitarian and human rights situation.”
UN Commission Warns Peace Mechanisms Are Failing as Guns Return
The UN Commission’s warning is based on the UN Framework of Analysis for Atrocity Crimes, which identifies warning signs associated with genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and ethnic cleansing.
According to the panel, most of the framework’s warning signs are currently present and intensifying in South Sudan.
Among the most concerning developments are renewed armed conflict, weak state institutions, entrenched impunity, exclusionary governance, corruption, restrictions on civic space and inflammatory political rhetoric.
At the same time, mechanisms capable of reducing these risks have weakened.
The Commission pointed specifically to the deterioration of ceasefire monitoring, independent justice institutions and inclusive political dialogue.
It also alleged that inclusive politics were being abandoned in Juba, while constitutional safeguards and civic space had been weakened. Accountability mechanisms, the panel stated, remain largely absent.
These conditions have created concerns about whether political competition surrounding the elections can take place peacefully and whether citizens will be able to participate without intimidation or fear.
Significant sections of the population remain excluded from meaningful political participation, according to the Commission.
“Without a return to genuine and inclusive dialogue, the political contest surrounding the elections risks deepening existing divisions rather than providing a peaceful means of resolving them”
UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan
The panel has nevertheless stressed that its concerns should not be interpreted as opposition to elections.
Commission Chair Yasmin Sooka said South Sudanese citizens who have waited 15 years to cast their first ballots have the right to choose their government through free, peaceful and democratic elections.
The challenge, according to the Commission, is ensuring that elections do not become another arena for armed confrontation.
“Elections must not be allowed to create another violent battleground. The guns are returning while the safeguards for peaceful political competition are disappearing. That is a profoundly dangerous trajectory.”
UN Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan
Commissioner Carlos Castresana Fernández similarly stressed that simply holding elections according to a predetermined timetable would not be enough to establish their credibility.
“An election cannot be credible simply because it is held on schedule. It is credible when citizens can vote without fear, political opponents can participate freely, courts can resolve disputes independently, and institutions can constrain the exercise of power.”
Carlos Castresana Fernández
The Commission’s assessment therefore places the responsibility on South Sudan’s political leadership and institutions to create the conditions necessary for a credible democratic process.
For a country that has experienced repeated cycles of political violence, displacement and humanitarian suffering, the stakes are particularly high.
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