Greenpeace International has warned governments to intensify efforts to move away from fossil fuels and halt forest destruction after a new United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report indicated that global temperatures are likely to exceed the 1.5°C threshold within the coming years.
According to the environmental organisation, the warning should not be interpreted as a reason for governments to abandon the internationally agreed climate target, but rather as an urgent call to accelerate action to limit the extent and duration of any temperature overshoot.
Greenpeace argued that concerted and extensive action must now become a central component of government policy as countries confront increasingly visible climate impacts, including severe heatwaves, wildfires and changing weather patterns.
The latest UNEP assessment represents the first UN report to describe a pathway in which global temperatures temporarily exceed 1.5°C before reaching a peak and subsequently declining. While the report indicates that an overshoot is increasingly likely, it also stresses that the scale and duration of the exceedance remain dependent on decisions governments make today.
UNEP’s best-case scenario projects that global temperature rise could peak at around 1.8°C if countries collectively meet and exceed their existing climate commitments.
However, Greenpeace cautioned that even a peak of 1.8°C would carry significant consequences for communities, ecosystems and economies, with increasing risks of irreversible changes to critical global systems.
The report, according to Greenpeace, comes at a particularly important moment for international climate diplomacy, with governments preparing for this year’s United Nations General Assembly and the COP31 climate negotiations.
Greenpeace is calling on world leaders to raise their climate ambitions at both forums while urging the Santa Marta “coalition of doers” to demonstrate stronger national action and help drive progress towards a just transition away from fossil fuels.
According to Jasper Inventor, Deputy Programme Director at Greenpeace International, the latest assessment represented a painful warning but should strengthen rather than weaken global efforts to protect the 1.5°C goal.
“This is news none of us wanted to hear, but overshoot is not the reason to give up and surrender 1.5°C. It’s a heartbreaking moment, and we need to reflect on that, but every fraction of a degree still matters, and the UNEP report must now serve as a defining call to action.”
Jasper Inventor
Inventor stated that governments must move more rapidly to expand renewable energy, protect forests and ensure that companies responsible for high levels of carbon emissions contribute to addressing the consequences of climate change.
“The 1.5°C goal is not only a legal, political and moral threshold it’s our lifeline and what we do today and tomorrow will determine our fate. Governments must accelerate a fast, fair and funded just transition into renewable energy, ensure we end and reverse forest destruction by 2030 and hold fossil fuel polluters and forest destroyers to account. To help finance climate action, we must also make polluters pay for climate damages.”
Jasper Inventor
The warning highlights the growing importance of limiting not only the eventual peak of global warming but also the amount of time the world spends above the 1.5°C threshold.
According to UNEP, every additional fraction of a degree of warming increases the risks facing societies and natural systems. Prolonged warming above the threshold could intensify extreme weather events and place further pressure on already vulnerable communities.
Climate Overshoot Threatens Pacific Communities’ Survival and Sovereignty
Across the Pacific, the prospect of global temperatures rising beyond 1.5°C represents a threat whose consequences reach far beyond climate statistics.
The release of the UNEP report coincided with the Pacific Island Forum in Palau, where Pacific island states are seeking to build regional momentum ahead of COP31 and advance their call for a Fossil Fuel Free Pacific.
Many Pacific island communities are already experiencing the effects of rising seas, coastal erosion, extreme weather and climate-related displacement. For these countries, the 1.5°C threshold has long been framed not simply as an international policy objective but as a critical boundary for protecting homes, livelihoods, cultures and national sovereignty.
Moemoana Schwenke, Pacific Climate Campaigner at Greenpeace Australia Pacific, revealed that the latest UNEP assessment underscored the urgency of the region’s longstanding demands.
“For the Pacific, 1.5°C is not an ambition, it is a survival line. It is a matter of justice, sovereignty and our right to determine our own futures in our Pacific way. We inherit our lands, oceans and cultures as an entrusted responsibility, not a commodity to be exhausted.”
Moemoana Schwenke
According to Schwenke, international commitments must now be translated into concrete action, including a rapid transition away from fossil fuels and an end to the expansion of coal, oil and gas production.
“The International Court of Justice has already been clear that 1.5°C is a legally binding obligation, not just a choice. Pacific communities, for decades, have been clear that our ways of life, homes and livelihoods are under threat from climate disasters and impacts. An overshoot is not compatible with Pacific wellbeing.”
Moemoana Schwenke
He added, “the court and governments must translate responsibility into action: a rapid, just and legally grounded transition away from fossil fuels with no further expansion of coal, oil and gas.”
Meanwhile, Greenpeace pointed to the International Court of Justice’s advisory opinion on climate change, arguing that the world’s largest historical emitters have a particular responsibility to act rapidly and support vulnerable communities.
The organisation stated that this responsibility should include stronger emissions reductions, greater investment in renewable energy and financial mechanisms to support countries and communities dealing with climate-related losses and damages.
Dr Jerry Jose, Senior Scientist at the Greenpeace International Science Unit, warned that the consequences of an overshoot could extend across generations.
“Among the many stark warnings, the UNEP report presents the intergenerational burden climate change will impose on future communities in an overshoot scenario. The risks of permanent change escalate as our climate warms.”
Dr Jerry Jose
He stressed that returning global temperatures to 1.5°C after an overshoot would not happen automatically and could take decades, during which vulnerable communities would continue to experience uneven and potentially irreversible impacts.
“Deep and sustained mitigation in the near-term is essential to limit the peak and duration of the overshoot we are leaving our future generations. Even a decline of temperature is ‘not a given’ and depends on decisions and actions taken today. This raises profound questions about intergenerational responsibility and must compel us to act now.”
Dr Jerry Jose
Environmental campaigners argue that the focus should not shift towards accepting the loss of the 1.5°C target, but towards keeping any temperature overshoot temporary and limiting its duration.
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