The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has reported a rise in global food commodity prices in August 2026, as high temperatures and other weather-related risks raised concerns over supply prospects.
According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), its Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August, representing a 1.9% increase from its revised July level and 2.5% higher than the corresponding period a year earlier.
The latest increase marks a renewed rise in international food commodity prices as concerns over production prospects grow across several major agricultural markets. High temperatures and weather-related risks have emerged as important drivers of uncertainty, with their effects being felt across cereals, vegetable oils, meat, dairy and sugar.
FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero noted that the latest figures point to a broader convergence of risks that could undermine food-price stability.
“August’s increase in global food prices is a warning that the risk premium is returning to food markets: climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disrupted trade logistics are converging to tighten supply expectations, showing that resilience, open trade and secure input flows are now central to global food-price stability.”
Maximo Torero
The increase was broad-based, with four of the major commodity groups tracked by FAO recording higher prices during the month.
The sharpest rise came from sugar, whose price index jumped 11.9% in August. FAO attributed the increase to expectations of lower sugar beet yields in the European Union following adverse weather, alongside concerns over the potential effects of El Niño on production in key Asian producing countries.
Lower sugar production in Brazil also contributed to the upward pressure, while India’s announcement of duty-free imports of raw sugar added another factor to international market movements.
Dairy prices also strengthened considerably, rising 2.3% from July as hot and dry weather contributed to tightening milk supplies in the European Union.
The cereal market recorded a 2.2% increase, reflecting stronger import demand, deteriorating crop prospects and continuing uncertainty around important trade routes.
Wheat prices climbed 2.6% during August and were 15.0 percent above their level a year earlier. The increase was linked to continued disruptions affecting Black Sea export logistics, weaker production prospects across parts of Europe following hot and dry weather, and a weaker United States dollar.
Maize prices similarly rose% percent from July, amid mounting concerns about yields in parts of the United States and worsening production prospects in the European Union.
Strong demand from the ethanol and animal-feed sectors added to the pressure, while disruptions to agricultural inputs following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and interruptions to Ukraine’s export flows further complicated the outlook.
The FAO All Rice Price Index increased more modestly by 0.5%, supported by sustained purchases from Asian and African countries.
Climate Risks Weigh on Global Production Outlook
The latest food-price figures come alongside a downward revision to FAO’s forecast for global cereal production in 2026, highlighting the growing influence of weather conditions on the outlook for agricultural supply.
According to FAO’s updated Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, global cereal production is now forecast at 2,980 million tonnes in 2026. That represents a 2.0% decline from 2025, although the projected harvest would still rank as the second-largest on record.
Global maize production is now forecast at 1,309 million tonnes, with worsening crop conditions in France and Poland expected to more than offset stronger-than-anticipated yields in Argentina and Brazil.
The outlook for wheat has moved in the opposite direction, with FAO raising its forecast for global wheat production to 810.7 million tonnes. Despite the upward revision, production would remain 3.8% below the 2025 level, although it would still represent the second-largest wheat harvest on record.
Rice production is also expected to weaken. Global rice output is projected at 553.1 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, down 1.9% from the record reached in the previous season.
FAO linked the expected decline partly to reduced producer margins and weather conditions associated largely with El Niño.
The effects of weather-related risks are not limited to crops. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rose 1.1% in August, driven by higher palm and soy oil prices. Strong global import demand and concerns about the impact of El Niño on production in Southeast Asia contributed to the increase.
Rapeseed and sunflower oil prices, however, moved slightly lower amid expectations of ample supplies during the year ahead.
The meat market also recorded an increase, with the FAO Meat Price Index rising 1.0 percent. Prices for poultry, pig and ovine meat all increased, while international bovine meat prices declined.
High temperatures in the European Union slowed animal growth and contributed to higher pig meat quotations. At the same time, China’s allocation of import quotas intensified competition among exporters in Brazil and Australia seeking alternative markets for their beef.
Despite the renewed rise in food prices, FAO’s wider assessment suggests that global cereal supplies remain relatively comfortable by historical standards.
World cereal stocks at the close of seasons in 2027 are forecast to reach 947.2 million tonnes, slightly above opening levels. Part of the increase is expected to come from higher wheat reserves in Russia and Ukraine, linked to restrictions affecting export routes.
The resulting global cereal stocks-to-use ratio for the 2026/27 season is projected at 31.6%, down from 31.9% in the previous season but still indicative of a relatively comfortable supply position from a historical perspective.
However, the outlook for global cereal trade is less robust. FAO expects world cereal trade to decline from record levels in 2026/27 to 509.3 million tonnes.
Total global cereal utilisation is meanwhile forecast at 2,965 million tonnes in 2026/27, 0.2% higher than the previous year. Utilisation of coarse grains and rice is expected to increase, while wheat use is projected to decline.
The combination of relatively strong stock levels and rising prices highlights a more complicated global food outlook.
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