The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has reported a rise in global food commodity prices, driven by transportation disruptions, adverse weather conditions, and tighter supply prospects across several major agricultural markets, raising concerns about renewed pressure on food costs in import-dependent countries.
The FAO Food Price Index, which tracks monthly changes in the international prices of a basket of globally traded food commodities, averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, representing a 1.5% increase from August and a 5.8% rise compared with September 2025.
The increase was driven largely by stronger prices across crop-based commodities, with cereals, vegetable oils and sugar recording notable gains during the month. Although meat and dairy prices edged lower, the overall index continued to rise as logistical disruptions and weather-related risks complicated the production and movement of key food commodities.
Disruptions along major international trade routes have added to those pressures, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea, where uncertainty over shipping has affected transport and commodity markets. Rising freight costs and logistical bottlenecks have raised concerns about the ability of producers and exporters to maintain reliable supplies to global markets.
According to FAO Chief Economist Maximo Torero, the combination of geopolitical and climate-related pressures contributes to a broader build-up in commodity prices.
“We are seeing a persistent and increasingly broad-based build-up in global commodity prices, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Black Sea combine with climate shocks, putting pressure on energy, transport and key food commodities.
“If sustained, these pressures will soon pass through to consumer food prices, especially in food- and energy-import-dependent countries.”
Maximo Torero
The September figures point to the uneven impact of the current market pressures. Cereal prices recorded one of the strongest increases, while sugar and vegetable oils also became more expensive. Meat and dairy prices, however, moved in the opposite direction, highlighting differences in supply conditions across commodity groups.
The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 5.1% from August, leaving it 17.2% above its September 2025 level.
Wheat prices rose by 6.3% during September, with FAO attributing the increase to logistical constraints in the Black Sea region and dry weather in parts of North America ahead of sowing.
Global maize prices also increased, rising 5.6% from the previous month, amid concerns over yields in the United States, reduced export availability from Brazil and disruptions to Black Sea trade.
Uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also supported prices of biofuel feedstocks such as maize, adding another layer of pressure to the international market.
Rice prices recorded a more moderate increase. The FAO All Rice Price Index rose by 1.4%, with Indica rice quotations increasing amid weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies.
Climate Risks and Disrupted Trade Reshape Food Markets
The rise in food prices is occurring alongside a downward revision in global cereal production prospects for 2026, although FAO expects the year’s harvest to remain historically high.
According to the organisation’s latest Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, global cereal production is now forecast at 2,979 million tonnes, representing a 2.1% decline from 2025.
Despite the projected decline, the 2026 harvest would remain the second largest on record, after the previous year’s level.
Also, FAO raised its forecast for global wheat production to 813.9 million tonnes, supported by improved weather conditions in Australia. However, the increase is expected to be more than offset by a downward revision for coarse grains, with production now projected at 1,612 million tonnes.
The reduction in coarse grain prospects is linked to weaker yield expectations in the European Union and the United States because of hot and dry weather.
Global rice production is forecast at 552.5 million tonnes, with lower production prospects in India outweighing improved expectations for Japan and Nepal.
In India, the reduction is largely attributed to poorly distributed monsoon rainfall.
These developments demonstrate how weather patterns are increasingly influencing agricultural markets at a time when global food systems are also being exposed to disruptions in transportation and trade.
According to the AMIS Market Monitor, rice yields globally are typically 1.0 to 1.5% below their expected trend during El Niño events. Wheat and maize yields are generally closer to normal levels, while soybean yields are often 1.5 to 2.0% above trend.
The effects, however, are not uniform. FAO noted that stronger El Niño events tend to produce more predictable yield outcomes, although they are not necessarily more severe, while weaker events can generate greater variability.
The pressure is also evident in vegetable oils, with the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index rising 0.9% from August. Higher palm oil prices, driven by strong global import demand and concerns about the effects of dry weather on production in Southeast Asia, contributed to the increase.
Sugar recorded a sharper increase, with the FAO Sugar Price Index climbing 6.1% from August.
The increase is linked to expectations of tighter global sugar supplies during the 2026/27 season.
Meanwhile, not all food commodities experienced price increases. The FAO Meat Price Index declined by 1.1%, largely because pig and poultry meat prices fell amid abundant exportable supplies.
Brazilian bovine meat export quotations increased, supported by stronger demand from the United States, while ovine meat prices remained broadly stable.
The FAO Dairy Price Index also edged down, declining 0.1% in September. Lower cheese prices slightly outweighed increases in milk powder quotations, while butter prices changed little.
Despite the mixed performance across commodity groups, the broader market outlook remains vulnerable to disruptions in production and trade.
FAO forecasts global cereal trade at 505.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, a 3.5% decline from the record level recorded in 2025/26.
International rice trade is also projected to decline by 2.2% in 2026, before recovering by 1.7% in 2027.
Global cereal stocks are forecast to remain at about 950 million tonnes at the close of seasons in 2027. Higher wheat and barley stocks are expected to offset drawdowns in rice and sorghum stocks.
The resulting global cereals stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 31.7% in 2026/27, slightly below the previous season’s 32.0%.
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