Global InfoAnalytics’ September National Tracking Survey puts Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson at 47 percent and former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia at 44 percent among voters in Ghana’s five northern regions. Executive Director Mussa Dankwah released the analysis of a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup.
The analysis also tests Dr Bawumia against NDC National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia and compares both contests with President John Dramani Mahama’s 2024 showing in the north. It asks northern NDC voters whom they prefer as flagbearer, a race the party has yet to settle.
Dr Ato Forson’s three-point lead puts the two men in a tight race in the north. An earlier head-to-head poll reported the Ajumako Enyan-Essiam Member of Parliament at 54 percent against Dr Bawumia’s 35 percent, so the northern figures show a much narrower gap.
“Ato Forson is underperforming JDM by 11% while Dr Bawumia is outperforming his 2024 result by 5%.”
Global InfoAnalytics Executive Director Mussa Dankwah
Mussa Dankwah tested a scenario without Kennedy Agyapong, the former NPP presidential aspirant. Dr Bawumia’s support stays where it is, so Agyapong’s absence gives him no boost in this matchup.
Bawumia Leads Asiedu Nketia by Seven Points
In a separate contest, Dr Bawumia takes 47 percent to Mr Asiedu Nketia’s 40 percent. That is eight points better than Dr Bawumia’s 2024 result in the north, while Mr Asiedu Nketia falls 18 points below President Mahama’s 2024 share.
Without Kennedy Agyapong, Mr Asiedu Nketia rises from 40 to 42 percent, and Dr Bawumia holds at 47 percent. Support linked to Mr Agyapong, in other words, does not move automatically to the opposition New Patriotic Party’s flagbearer when he leaves the race.
The two matchups differ in a way that matters for the NDC. The Finance Minister, Dr Ato Forson, runs three points behind Dr Bawumia, while Mr Asiedu Nketia runs seven points behind.
Education Minister Tops the NDC Flagbearer Preferences
Among voters who backed the ruling National Democratic Congress in 2024, Education Minister and MP for Tamale South Hon. Haruna Iddrisu leads the flagbearer preferences with 48 percent.
The party’s national chairman, Mr Asiedu Nketia, and Finance Minister Dr Forson each take 14 percent, and Vice President Jane Naana Opoku-Agyemang takes 13 percent. The Chief of Staff, Julius Debrah, gets four percent and Joshua Alabi three percent, while Eric Opoku and Emmanuel Armah Kofi-Buah each score two percent.
Dr Ato Forson’s result in this northern question differs from his earlier showings. A previous poll found him leading the NDC race, and another found young and old voters backing both him and Haruna Iddrisu. A further report showed Dr Ato Forson winning young delegates as Mr Asiedu Nketia lost his core base.
In a head-to-head question, Dr Ato Forson beats Mr Asiedu Nketia 52 percent to 48 percent among the same voters. The analysis gives no head-to-head result for Haruna Iddrisu, so his lead does not show how he would fare against Dr Forson one-on-one.
Dankwah Raises a Possible Regional Divide
Mussa Dankwah argues that Dr Bawumia could do better in the north if the NDC chooses an Akan candidate. He points to the possibility of a north-to-south split in voting, in which regional ties shape support for the two main parties.
The figures alone do not show that such a split will happen in 2028. The pollster has also warned that floating voters could decide the contest, and in another instance warned that the NPP faces an uphill battle in 2028. Dr Bawumia’s northern gains sit awkwardly beside that warning.
Mussa Dankwah’s analysis covers hypothetical matchups, and nobody should read it as a prediction. The survey excludes first-time voters and eligible voters who stayed home in 2024, and both groups could change the electorate.
The national sample was 2,387 voters. Mr Dankwah did not disclose how many respondents came from the five northern regions, so the regional percentages carry that uncertainty. The NDC has yet to pick its flagbearer, and the contest in the north will look different once it does.
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