Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum, Opiyo Wandayi, has confirmed that the country is on track to begin commercial crude oil exports by the end of 2026. The announcement marks a significant shift in Kenya’s ambition to become a regional energy player, following years of delays and setbacks.
At the center of the renewed optimism is Gulf Energy Ltd., which is in the final stages of acquiring British oil major Tullow Oil’s Kenyan assets. These assets include the prized South Lokichar oil fields in Turkana County—estimated to hold 560 million barrels of recoverable oil, with potential oil in place (OIP) exceeding 4 billion barrels.
“Once we are convinced that they have all we want, we are going to approve the Field Development Plan (FDP) that will then usher in the commercial phase.
“By the end of 2026, we will be having the first product from Turkana heading to the coast for export.”
Opiyo Wandayi, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum
The government’s plan hinges on the approval of the FDP, a regulatory milestone that determines whether Kenya can proceed to Final Investment Decision (FID).
Gulf Energy, expected to lead development post-acquisition, aims for an initial production capacity of between 60,000 to 100,000 barrels per day.
While this is not the first time such a projection has been made, this iteration is backed by stronger political will and ongoing regulatory processes led by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA).
In 2024, the government revised the target export date to 2028 due to financing hurdles and the exit of key partners like TotalEnergies and Africa Oil.
The revival under Gulf Energy reflects both a leadership shift and a recalibrated strategy to fast-track production.
Despite the progress, the Ksh15 billion ($120 million) asset sale from Tullow to Gulf Energy has sparked concern within Kenya’s National Assembly.
Lawmakers have called for increased transparency around the transaction, worried about its implications on national resource management and long-term revenue forecasts.
Revisiting Early Oil Experiences
Kenya’s oil journey has been marred by false starts. In August 2019, the Early Oil Pilot Scheme (EOPS) saw 240,000 barrels exported in a trial run.
While initially promising, the program encountered operational and logistical bottlenecks that exposed the country’s unreadiness for large-scale oil exports.
Production forecasts at the time projected up to 120,000 barrels per day. However, subsequent partner withdrawals and delayed investments forced the government to recalibrate its expectations.
CS Wandayi acknowledged past missteps but expressed confidence in the current direction.
“We now have clearer focus and the right structure to move forward.
“With the FDP nearly ready, and Gulf Energy’s increasing involvement, the pieces are falling into place.”
Opiyo Wandayi, Kenya’s Cabinet Secretary for Energy and Petroleum
One of the most contentious aspects of Kenya’s upstream strategy is the decision not to construct a domestic refinery.
The government cited the relatively low volume of reserves as economically unviable for refining, choosing instead to export crude and continue importing refined petroleum products.
Even as optimism builds, significant hurdles remain. The FDP still requires approval, and commercial production depends on securing financing and finalising infrastructure such as roads and pipelines from Turkana to the coast.
The 2026 target, while feasible, is contingent on steady progress in these areas. Additionally, Kenya will need to navigate geopolitical risks, environmental concerns, and global oil market fluctuations that could impact investor appetite and export profitability.
Nevertheless, with political commitment, private-sector momentum, and regulatory involvement converging, Kenya appears closer than ever to realising its long-held oil ambitions.
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