Security Analyst, Col rtd Festus Aboagye, has expressed misgivings over the ability of Guinea junta to restore “constitutional order in six months”, following the coup provoked by the group and the subsequent overthrow of the sitting President Alpha Conde.

The outcome of the extraordinary summit by ECOWAS, he explained, was cited out of their “protocol” and used as basis to “make demands on the new status quo in Guinea”.

According to him, it will be “very illogical” that the “new organ” as described by ECOWAS, “can restore constitutional order in six month”.

“Because the constitution has been overthrown… they need to write a new constitution and it’s not going to be a simple matter. It’s not a very simple matter of throwing away the constitution that was re-engineered by Conde which served as a proximate cause for his overthrow and then restoring a former constitution. It’s going to be an entirely new process of bringing together segments of Guinean society… to try and get some consensus around this constitution. Six months is too short for them”.
Col rtd Festus Aboagye

Demands of ECOWAS

Col Aboagye described the posture of ECOWAS in making such demands as “overstatement” and “too ambitious”. He added that even if such transition is possible, at the end, “there’s going to be democratic elections”.

Moreover, the security analyst espoused that the protocol read out by ECOWAS demands that the election has to be “free, fair and transparent”. Therefore, it is crucial that certain arrangement be made to ensure the smooth running of elections.

“You need to allow time for campaigning. So, there’s going to be law on political parties. You need now to get logistics and infrastructure in place. It’s very possible that a new commissioner for elections is going to be appointed; six months, is not even optimistic. The attitude that ECOWAS has adopted once again is to sit in the capital of the chair and read out demands on a state that has been overthrown and that we have said, is counterproductive”.
Col rtd Festus Aboagye

Adopt a transition plan for Guinea

Col Aboagye further bemoaned the presence of the leader of council of state’s participation in the mission to Guinea. He stated that he would have preferred the appointment of a “very high level mission [of] diplomats”, to engage with the leaders in Guinea.

“Now what went [on] the other time, for me, I didn’t even understand why the leader of our council of state should be part of that mission to Guinea. Because that leader of the council of state is not part of ECOWAS architecture for security. You don’t find that anywhere in the 1999 mechanism or in the protocol of 2001.

“So, ECOWAS has missed the plot and I think it’s not too late, as we did in the Gambia to send a high level team of leaders or retired former heads of states to go and engage them and work out a plan, a transition plan. So far, we know that the leaders are working out their own transition plan. They’re consulting segments of Guinean society. So, they are adopting the right approach to right the wrongs that Conde effected on the state”.
Col rtd Festus Aboagye