Global rough diamond production is expected to recover by 1.4 per cent to reach 112.99 million carats (Mct) in 2021, after experiencing an estimated 19.4 per cent decline to 111.4 Mct in 2020, according to GlobalData.

Accordingly, GlobalData indicates that significant recoveries in output are expected in Botswana (+37%), Canada (+16.6%) and Angola (+26.3%).

Commenting on the outlook of diamond production, Vinneth Bajaj, Associate Project Manager at GlobalData indicated:

“Overall, production over the forecast period (2021–2025) is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5%, to reach 124.8Mct in 2025.”
Vinneth Bajaj, Associate Project Manager, GlobalData

In the previous year, the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted the progress in the global diamond market which was already struggling. This was due to a number of factors including the then ongoing US-China trade war and the political instability in Hong Kong, one of the major locations for trading diamonds.

“During Q1 2020 China was the worst affected, however, it was also the fastest to recover after the setback from the pandemic. China became a key driver for the balanced global demand for diamonds.

“Elsewhere, the gradual easing of restrictions improved market conditions and reinforced demand across the global supply chain. Demand in key consuming markets, including the US and China, recovered towards the end of 2020.”
Vinneth Bajaj, Associate Project Manager, GlobalData

Production Outlook for Botswana

Meanwhile, diamond production in Botswana was affected the most by the pandemic, reporting a significant 28.5 per cent fall to 16.9Mct in 2020.

However, the decline was primarily due to the continued planned reductions in response to the lower demand for rough diamonds. This was as a result of the impact of COVID and associated operational challenges at Debswana’s Orapa mine, which led to lower-than-expected output.

“Looking ahead, owing to the mines returning to operations and the demand showing signs of recovery, the country’s production of rough diamonds is expected to bounce back. This will lead to a rise by 37 per cent, to reach 23.2Mct in 2021, before declining by 2.2 per cent in 2022.

“[This was] linked to the closure of Damtshaa mine (2022), and then remain relatively flat over the rest of the forecast period. Meanwhile, Debswana Diamond, Botswana’s largest producer, anticipates production recovering to pre-COVID levels between 2021 and 2023.”
Vinneth Bajaj, Associate Project Manager, GlobalData

Production Outlook for Russia, Angola and Australia

Russia, which holds some of the world’s largest diamond deposits, is expected to remain the world’s largest supplier. With potential new diamond mines, Botswana, Canada and the DRC are also expected to remain prominent suppliers of rough diamonds to global markets, Bajaj indicated.

Furthermore, Angola will emerge among the top five producers globally, and eventually surpass the DRC to become the fourth largest towards the latter part of the forecast period.

“Production in Australia will continue to decline, owing to the depleting ore reserves at the Argyle mine. Given the Ellendale mine is currently idled, Australia’s diamond production effectively ceased at the end of 2020, Bajaj asserted.

“However, the Australian diamond industry may be revived due to the emergence of several mining companies currently conducting various exploration activities to nurture potential diamond deposits.”
Vinneth Bajaj, Associate Project Manager,GlobalData

Furthermore, as of May 24 2021, Lucapa Diamond entered into a binding agreement to acquire the Merlin mine from Merlin Diamonds, offering some hope of restarting the Australian diamond industry after the closure of Argyle.

Additionally, to attract investments in diamond mining, the Northern Territory government also reduced precious stone’s royalty rate to 5 per cent in July 2020, a 2.5 per cent reduction compared to the previous rate of 7.5 per cent, Bajaj added.