Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is making significant gains in the polls, signaling a growing appetite for nationalist populism among British voters. The latest Techne UK tracker poll shows the party jumping three points in just one week.

The survey of 1,644 voters took place following Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer’s “Plan for Change” speech at Pinewood Studios, which appears to have failed in bolstering confidence in the Labour government.

Labour’s support fell by one point to 27%, its lowest since the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. Meanwhile, Reform UK climbed to 21%, narrowing the gap between the two parties to just six points.

Adding to the Labour Party’s woes, public trust in Starmer’s government dropped four points in a week, falling from 33% to 29%.

The Conservatives also suffered setbacks. Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, currently on a visit to Washington, D.C., saw her party’s support dip by two points to 25%. The Liberal Democrats, led by Sir Ed Davey, fell one point to 12%, while the Green Party experienced a slight boost, rising to 7%.

This surge for Reform UK aligns with findings from other polls, including one by Find Out Now, which placed the party at 24%, ahead of Labour and close to the Conservatives.

Farage welcomed the results, stating, “The momentum for Reform is growing quickly.” His deputy leader, Richard Tice, echoed this optimism, declaring, “We now have three parties polling regularly in the twenties. We have moved away from a two-party system.”

The party’s rise has been bolstered by high-profile defections. Former Conservative MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns and Conservative Home founder Tim Montgomerie both recently joined Reform UK. The party claims more defections, including from current MPs, are on the horizon.

Adding intrigue to the story, billionaire Elon Musk denied reports he plans to donate $100 million to Reform UK but notably stopped short of ruling out a smaller contribution.

Disrupting the Political Balance

Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo believes both Labour and the Conservatives are being undermined by Starmer’s missteps and defections to Reform UK. She described Labour’s drop in the polls as a response to Starmer’s uninspiring speech: “Keir Starmer’s Plan for Change speech does not warm the spirits and does not reward, causing Labour a drop by 1 per cent.”

Morizzo also pointed to the excitement surrounding Reform UK’s growth, noting that even the possibility of a major donation or organizational expansion is enough to shift public perception.

“The announcement of real or presumed defections from the Conservative Party to Reform UK, the announcement of a widespread territorial organization, and the possible massive donation from Elon Musk has upset the balance on the right, causing Reform UK to grow by three points.”
Michela Morizzo

Conservative losses, which saw the party fall by two points in the same poll, reflect the growing pressure from Farage’s insurgent movement.

While the current surge for Reform UK is notable, Morizzo warned against drawing long-term conclusions.

“Will this situation last? It is impossible to say,” she said. “We need to see how the Conservative Party will react to what is happening and, above all, what its plans will be for the coming months.”

Despite the uncertainty, Reform UK is capitalizing on its growing popularity by positioning itself as an alternative to the traditional two-party system. Its gains are shaking up the political landscape, suggesting a more fragmented electorate and a potential realignment in British politics.

Whether this momentum translates into sustained support will depend on how Labour and the Conservatives adapt to the rising challenge. For now, Nigel Farage’s party appears to have captured a wave of public discontent, making it a force to watch in the coming months.