The Election Commission of India (ECI) has begun its count of more than 600 million votes cast by Indians as they choose their next national government.

The seven-phase election, the world’s largest democratic exercise, began on April 19, 2024, and ended on Saturday, June 1, 2024.

The vote count started at 8am local time on Tuesday, June 4, 2024, and the final results should be clear later in the day.

At stake are 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s Parliament.

A total of 272 seats are needed for a majority in parliament.

Incumbent Prime Minister, Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is part of the National Democratic Alliance(NDA). The Congress party is part of the INDIA alliance.

Early leads reported on Tuesday by the Election Commission of India showed Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comfortably ahead over its closest rival, Indian National Congress.

However, the united opposition is giving a spirited fight, with the main opposition, Indian National Congress and its allies doing better than expected.

The BJP-led NDA alliance is leading on 282 while the Congress and its allies are ahead in 219 constituencies. The BJP on its own is leading in 237 seats while the Congress alone is ahead in 97.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is still positioned to win a majority on its own.

However, if Modi’s party fails to win a clear mandate on its own, it would represent a big setback for the BJP, which won 282 seats on its own in 2014 and 303 seats in 2019.

If Modi wins, it would only be the second time an Indian leader has retained power for a third term after Jawaharlal Nehru, the country’s first Prime Minister.

The victory would cement Modi as one of the country’s most popular and important leaders.

In his 10 years in power, Modi has transformed India’s political landscape. His popularity has outstripped that of his party’s and has turned a parliamentary election into one that increasingly resembles a presidential-style campaign.

The result is that the BJP relies more and more on Modi’s enduring brand to stay in power, with local politicians receding into the background even in state elections.

BJP’s Majority Questioned

Analyst Rajat Sethi opined that while the BJP and its allies will “comfortably” be in a majority, it was unlikely for the ruling party to cross the majority threshold on its own.

“Prime Minister Modi has been in power for the last 10 years, and to some extent, some anti-incumbency has sunk into his electoral successes that have been there for the past 10 years.

“But what we are seeing is yet another five year term for Prime Minister Modi, but with a reduced majority.”
Rajat Sethi

Nevertheless, Sethi said that there were still some six to seven hours left in the vote-counting process, until “we have a clear picture.”

“A lot of these seats that you’re seeing where BJP is either failing or is winning is by a very, very small margin,” he added.

Also, Political analyst and columnist, Asim Ali told a news agency that while the BJP and its NDA coalition will likely form the government, based on the latest leads released by the election commission, he is hoping for a lower share of seats for the Modi-led NDA.

“The question is how big a majority they [BJP and allies] will come back with this election. The question is whether our democracy will survive or not. If the BJP gets 300-plus seats like the last time, it will be a long-term disaster.”
Asim Ali

Ali said that if the opposition Congress were to win 80-90 seats, that would be a satisfactory performance.

He added, “If the Congress party gets decimated, there will be no healthy or functional opposition. It will be an open field for the BJP.”