According to a new poll, Robert Jenrick is making significant strides in the Conservative Party leadership race, narrowing the gap with Kemi Badenoch.

The YouGov survey, suggests that the former immigration minister is now just four points behind Badenoch, a marked improvement from six weeks ago when the gap was much wider.

Back in August, Badenoch held a commanding 15-point lead, with 48 percent of party members backing her compared to Jenrick’s 33 percent. Now, the margin has tightened significantly, with 52 percent supporting Badenoch and 48 percent favoring Jenrick in a potential final round head-to-head.

Both candidates, alongside their two other rivals, have spent the last few weeks vying for the support of party members at the annual Conservative Party conference. Through leadership hustings, fringe events, and informal drinks receptions, the contenders have been working to shore up their positions in what some have dubbed a political “beauty contest.”

However, Badenoch has faced backlash over recent comments she made regarding maternity pay in the UK. She described the current system as “excessive,” a remark that sparked immediate criticism.

Though she later clarified her stance, affirming her belief in maternity pay, her rivals have capitalized on the misstep. Jenrick, in particular, has been vocal, stating that the party should “firmly be on the side of parents and working mums.”

Polling Tightens as Candidates Vie for Support

Jenrick has also leaned heavily into his anti-immigration stance at the party conference. Addressing a rally on the fringes of the event, he argued that the Conservative Party must make a decisive break from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), warning that failure to do so would leave the country vulnerable to “dangerous criminals on our streets.”

His strong rhetoric appears to have resonated with a significant portion of the party’s membership.

The YouGov poll, conducted between September 21 and 29, surveyed 802 Conservative Party members and revealed that Jenrick’s momentum is not limited to his rivalry with Badenoch.

In a hypothetical final-round contest against James Cleverly, Jenrick would emerge victorious, with 52 percent of members backing him compared to Cleverly’s 48 percent.

If Badenoch and Cleverly were to face off, the former business secretary would lead with 54 percent support, leaving Cleverly trailing at 46 percent. The outlook is even bleaker for Tom Tugendhat, who would lose to both Badenoch and Jenrick by significant margins.

Tugendhat’s weakest showing would be against Badenoch, with 58 percent of members supporting her versus 42 percent for Tugendhat.

As the race heats up, the focus will be on how each candidate continues to navigate the political landscape, with the final two contenders set to be decided by party members next month.

The competition is expected to intensify, with all four candidates making a last-ditch effort to win over the Conservative base.