Mussa Dankwah, the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has dismissed the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) assertion that its electoral defeat was due to low voter turnout among their supporters.
He pointed out that data from the exit polls contradicts this claim, revealing a significant shift in voter behavior.
According to the findings, over 20% of NPP voters who participated in the election across 11 out of the 16 regions chose to vote for John Mahama instead.
Dankwah asserted that this indicates that the party’s loss was not merely a result of apathy or low turnout, but rather a considerable number of their traditional voters opted to support the opposition candidate.
“The region with the highest defection from NPP to JDM was Savannah, 50%, Western North, 43%, Bono, 38%, Central, 38%, Volta, 32%, Ahafo, 30%, Upper East 23%, Eastern, 20%, Greater Accra, 20%, Upper West, 20% and Western, 20%, Bono East, 9%, North East, 9%, Oti, 8%, Ashanti, 5%”.
Mussa Dankwah
The pollster highlighted an intriguing aspect of the findings: the Eastern Region, traditionally one of the NPP’s key strongholds, ranked within the top 8 in terms of voter behavior.
According to Dankwah, this makes the defection of over 20% of NPP voters to the NDC in this region all the more surprising.
Given the historical support for the NPP in the Eastern Region, such a significant shift in allegiance underscores a notable shift in political sentiment and raises questions about the factors influencing voter decisions in this critical area.
Ashanti Region’s Defections; Major Impact on NPP’s Loss
Furthermore, Mussa Dankwah pointed out that while the Ashanti Region’s defection rate, in terms of percentage, is relatively low compared to other regions, its overall impact is much more significant.
This is because over 25% of NPP voters nationwide are based in the Ashanti Region.
As a result, even a small percentage of defections from such a large voting base can have a profound effect.
Dankwah indicated that in terms of absolute numbers, the defection in the Ashanti Region would be far more substantial and potentially more damaging than the combined defection in several smaller regions.
According to him, this highlights the critical role this region plays in the NPP’s overall electoral performance.
“[A] significant number of NPP voters who voted in the presidential election voted against the NPP according to the data from the exit poll.
“Floating voters sealed the fate of NPP as the exit poll shows JDM won floating voters in all the regions except Ahafo and Ashanti regions”.
Mussa Dankwah
Dankwah also observed that John Dramani Mahama secured a remarkable share of floating voters across several regions during the recent presidential elections.
He revealed that in the Northern Region, John Mahama won 85% of the floating voter support, while in Savannah, 81% of floating voters cast their ballots in his favor.
The Volta Region, according to him, also showed strong backing for Mahama, with 81% of floating voters choosing him. In Greater Accra, he garnered 80% of the floating vote, while in Oti, he secured 73%.
Dankwah indicated that Mahama’s support was also substantial in the Western Region, where he won 72% of the floating voters.
These figures, he pointed out, underscore Mahama’s widespread appeal among undecided voters in key regions, which contributed significantly to his electoral performance.
Accordingly, Mussa Dankwah emphasized that the real conclusion, based on the data, is that it was the combination of defections from NPP voters and the behavior of floating voters that sealed the party’s fate in the election.
Contrary to the NPP’s claims of voter apathy being the main cause of their loss, the evidence suggests otherwise.
According to him, the strong support for John Mahama from undecided voters played a far more significant role in the party’s defeat, rather than any lack of voter turnout among NPP supporters.
This shift in voter allegiance was the decisive factor, undermining the party’s chances of victory.
