A final pre election survey has projected a commanding victory for National Democratic Congress candidate Baba Jamal in the upcoming Ayawaso East by election, with the former deputy employment minister expected to secure about 75 percent of valid votes cast.
The prediction was released by Global InfoAnalytics, one of Ghana’s most cited research and polling institutions, ahead of the Tuesday, March 3 2026, contest.
According to the poll’s executive director Mussa Dankwa, the projected outcome represents a slight improvement on the performance of the late Member of Parliament Mahama Naser Toure, who won the seat for the National Democratic Congress with nearly 71 percent of the vote during the 2024 parliamentary elections.
Mussa Dankwa described the figures as an indication of strong voter loyalty to the party and its candidate in the densely populated urban constituency. The poll suggests a challenging contest for the New Patriotic Party, whose candidate, Yussif Baba Ali, is projected to obtain about 21 percent of the vote.
This marks a notable decline of nearly eight percentage points compared to the party’s showing in 2024, when it secured approximately 29 percent. Analysts say the projected drop reflects internal party tensions and dissatisfaction among sections of its support base following contentious primaries.
The survey further indicates that voter movement is playing a significant role in shaping the outcome. About four percent of voters who identify with the NPP are expected to cross party lines to support Baba Jamal, while six percent are projected to back independent candidate Alhaji Mohammed Umaru Sanda.
At the same time, a segment of floating voters is forecast to return to the NPP, a shift the poll describes as a reaction to the NDC’s internal disputes rather than a full endorsement of the party’s campaign.
Independent Candidates Make Limited Impact
Independent candidate Umaru Sanda Muhammed, who previously defected from the NDC, is projected to secure only about three percent of the vote. Despite his prior affiliation with the governing party, the poll suggests his appeal remains limited, with most traditional NDC supporters staying firmly behind Baba Jamal.
The by-election features five candidates in total, including Ibrahim Iddrisu of the Liberal People’s Party and David Kannor, another independent contender.
However, the survey indicates that the race is effectively a two-party contest, with the NDC maintaining a dominant position and the remaining candidates sharing a small fraction of the electorate.
Global InfoAnalytics said the poll was conducted between February 28 and March 1, 2026, using a sample size of 972 respondents drawn across the constituency.
The survey carries a 95 percent confidence level with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.05 percent. Respondents were asked about voting intention, party loyalty, and perceptions of candidate credibility.
Mr Dankwa noted that Ayawaso East has remained a stronghold of the NDC since the 2024 elections, with floating voters historically leaning toward the party in national contests. He said the consistency of support reflects both demographic factors and the party’s organisational strength at the grassroots level.
The by election was triggered by the death of sitting Member of Parliament Mahama Naser Toure in January 2026 following a short illness. His passing created a vacancy in one of Accra’s most politically active constituencies, drawing national attention to the contest.
Nearly 50,000 registered voters are expected to cast their ballots across 113 polling stations. Campaigning has been intense, with both major parties deploying senior figures to canvass support in the tightly packed residential and commercial communities that define Ayawaso East.
Stakes and National Attention
While the NDC holds a comfortable parliamentary majority, the outcome of the by election is being closely watched as a test of the party’s popularity less than two years into its return to power.
For the NPP, the contest represents an opportunity to regain momentum after recent electoral setbacks, though the poll suggests that goal may be difficult to achieve.
Political observers say a decisive victory for Baba Jamal would reinforce the NDC’s dominance in urban Accra constituencies and strengthen its claim of broad based public support. Conversely, a lower than expected turnout or narrower margin could signal emerging voter apathy or shifting sentiments ahead of future elections.
As election day approaches, both parties continue last minute mobilisation efforts, though the final poll indicates that the balance of support remains firmly tilted toward the NDC candidate.
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