World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned that a strong El Niño event is rapidly developing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, raising the likelihood of widespread heatwaves, droughts, heavy rainfall and other extreme weather events across many regions of the world over the coming months.

The United Nations weather agency stated that the climate phenomenon has already emerged and is expected to worsen significantly between July and September 2026, necessitating an unprecedented mobilisation of climate monitoring, seasonal forecasting, and early warning systems to assist governments and vulnerable communities in preparing for potentially severe consequences.

According to the WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are warming rapidly, with forecasts indicating that seasonal sea-surface temperature anomalies will exceed two degrees Celsius in key monitoring regions.

The warning comes as countries grapple with increasingly complex climate concerns, such as lengthy droughts, catastrophic floods, record-breaking temperatures, and expanding challenges to food security, water resources, and public health. El Niño is a natural climate phenomena that disrupts weather conditions across continents, affecting agriculture, ecosystems, and economy.

WMO explained that the latest seasonal update builds upon its earlier El Niño/La Niña assessment issued in June but offers a broader picture by incorporating other major climate influences, including conditions in the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean.

Speaking on the most recent forecast, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo pointed out that coordinated international preparation was now necessary because the development had mostly gone as predicted by the organization’s forecasting tools.

“El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world.”
Celeste Saulo

Saulo stressed that the organization was expanding collaboration across the United Nations system and with regional partners to strengthen climate information services before the most severe impacts emerge.

“The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors. Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”
Celeste Saulo

The forecasts show that above-average temperatures are highly predicted throughout practically all populated regions of the world between 60 degrees south and 60 degrees north latitude. With the exception of the polar areas, which are mostly outside the predicted area of extreme warming, this encompasses most of Africa, Asia, Europe, North and South America, and Oceania.

The agency also highlighted substantial variations in projected rainfall patterns. Between July and September, wetter-than-normal conditions are projected for sections of the southwestern United States, while below-average rainfall is expected throughout much of the Indian subcontinent and vast areas of Australia.

Such changes could have profound consequences for agriculture, water availability and disaster preparedness. In many regions, farmers rely heavily on seasonal rainfall forecasts to determine planting schedules, crop selection and irrigation planning, while governments use climate outlooks to prepare for floods, droughts and disease outbreaks that often accompany changing weather conditions.

The predicted El Niño might exacerbate already-existing humanitarian and economic problems for nations already vulnerable to climate change, especially those where agricultural systems and water supplies are still under stress from past extreme weather events.

Climate Change Could Worsen El Niño Effects

WMO 4 — World Meteorological Organization

While El Niño itself is a naturally recurrent aspect of the Earth’s climatic system, the World Meteorological Organization cautioned that human-induced climate change can greatly intensify its consequences.

According to the WMO, there is currently no scientific proof that climate change causes El Niño episodes to occur more frequently or with greater intensity. However, rising global temperatures mean that when El Niño happens, its repercussions can become significantly more severe.

A warmer atmosphere is capable of holding more moisture, while warmer oceans give additional energy that fuels extreme weather systems. These conditions raise the possibility that El Niño-related events—including protracted heatwaves, severe rains and maritime heatwaves—will become more devastating.

Extreme land temperatures can raise health hazards, put a strain on electrical supply, and lower agricultural production in sensitive areas. Marine heatwaves, in particular, represent significant challenges to ocean ecosystems, fisheries, and coral reefs.

WMO also stated that El Niño can influence tropical storm activity in different ocean basins. Warmer waters in the central and eastern Pacific may promote storm formation there during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere while at the same time inhibiting hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean.

These changing atmospheric conditions illustrate how a single climate phenomenon can reshape weather hazards across multiple continents, making accurate seasonal forecasting increasingly important.

To strengthen preparedness, the WMO added that it is working closely with national meteorological and hydrological services, humanitarian organizations and governments to improve access to timely climate information and early warning systems.

Moreover, climate-sensitive sectors including agriculture, public health, disaster management, energy and water resource planning are expected to rely heavily on these seasonal outlooks in the coming months as governments evaluate potential risks and adapt response strategies.