According to Dr. Victor Doke, a seasoned Analyst at the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre (KAIPTC), Israel is unlikely to halt its military offensive in Lebanon until it reaches what conflict resolution experts describe as a “mutually hurting stalemate,” where the costs of continued fighting outweigh the perceived benefits.
In an interview with The Vaultz News, Dr. Doke argued that Israel’s determination to neutralise Hezbollah’s perceived threat will continue to drive its military campaign, and Israel’s security calculations, not diplomatic pressure from Washington, will ultimately determine the course of the conflict.
Dr. Doke said Washington could urge restraint but would stop short of compelling an end to Israeli military operations or imposing punitive measures, given the bilateral between the two countries.
“It will be very difficult for the US to demand that Israel stops. The USA would only appeal to the Israelis to stop the bombardment.”
Dr. Victor Doke
According to him, Washington’s longstanding defence and security partnership with Israel places limits on how far it can go in applying direct pressure. “The US won’t demand, but it will only appeal,” he iterated.
He added that while international bodies such as the United Nations or the UN Security Council could pursue sanctions or collective measures, the United States acting alone was unlikely to take such steps.
On whether developments in Lebanon could jeopardise the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and Iran, Dr. Doke argued that Israel’s strategic priorities differ from those of Washington because Israel views Hezbollah as an immediate existential threat.
He said the United States appears to have reached what conflict resolution scholars describe as a “mutually hurting stalemate” with Iran. Israel, however, operates under a different security calculus.
“So far as the existence of Hezbollah and Hamas is real, it threatens Israel’s survival and sovereignty. Any nation that sees or deems that there is a threat to its survival and sovereignty will go all out in the name of national interest.”
“For Israel, they are acting as a realists in the sense that they are placing their national interest first of all. Their security comes paramount. Their sovereignty is key.”
Dr. Victor Doke
Also, Dr. Doke said that he sees little chance of an immediate breakthrough in resolving the standoff between Israel and Hezbollah. “The only prospect I see is when Israel gets tired,” he said. He added that until Israel gets to the point of a mutually hurting stalemate, it “will not stop.”
He added that Israel is unlikely to withdraw its forces from strategic positions or stop it’s military operation unless it is convinced that Hezbollah no longer poses a significant security threat. Such entrenched positions, he warned, inevitably complicate peace negotiations.
Excluding Key Actors Weakens Long-term Peace Prospects
Additionally, Dr. Doke questioned the effectiveness of negotiations that do not directly involve all principal actors in the conflict.
While acknowledging that states can pursue limited agreements or coercive strategies without every party at the negotiating table, he maintained that inclusive dialogue remains the stronger path toward lasting peace. He suggested that Iran and Hezbollah should be involved in negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government.
According to him, excluding key stakeholders may produce short- to medium-term tactical gains but is less likely to deliver a durable ceasefire.
“If it happens without them, then they are looking at using coercive force to achieve their aim. If it happens with them, they are looking at getting their buy-in for a peaceful ceasefire, a peaceful agreement.”
Dr. Victor Doke
He also noted practical political obstacles to involving Iran and Hezbollah in talks hosted in Washington, pointing to longstanding tensions between the United States and Iran. Instead, he suggested that negotiations should be relocated to neutral territory where all parties would be able to participate without political restrictions.
Beyond the venue of negotiations, Dr. Doke emphasised the importance of credible and experienced mediators capable of earning the trust of all sides.
He argued that mediation requires patience, historical understanding and a collaborative approach rather than attempts to impose predetermined outcomes. “In this era, we don’t have leaders who are patient enough,” Dr. Doke observed, adding, “Negotiations and mediations take a lot of time.”
Rather than relying primarily on coercion, he said mediators should facilitate dialogue while ensuring that all parties feel heard. “You need collaboration, collaborative efforts to resolve the issue,” he said.
As diplomatic efforts between Israel and Hezbollah face significant obstacles, Dr. Doke believes that meaningful progress will depend on whether future peace initiatives become more inclusive, impartial and grounded in experienced mediation.
Until then, he suggested, the prospects for a durable ceasefire remain uncertain as competing security interests continue to shape decisions on the battlefield.
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