Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, Minister for Finance and MP for Ajumako-Enyan Essiam Constituency, has erased the National Democratic Congress’s deficit among Ghana’s Akans and leads in all the ethnic groups, according to September 2026 polling released by Global InfoAnalytics.
Executive Director Mussa Dankwa reports that the shift gives Dr Ato Forson a 3.9% advantage over Dr Mahamudu Bawumia in the country’s largest ethnic bloc.
Mr Dankwa traced the change by comparing a September 2023 poll, which pitted President John Mahama against Dr Bawumia, with the latest survey, which tests Johnson Asiedu Nketia and Dr Ato Forson against the same opponent.
He chose the two National Democratic Congress figures because every poll of delegates and general voters ranks them as the party’s frontrunners. He then split the numbers by ethnicity to show where the gap opened.
“In summary, Mahama led 7 in 9 ethnic groups, Asiedu Nketia leads in 6 out of 9 while Ato Forson leads in 9 out of 9 ethnic groups.”
Mussa Dankwa, Executive Director, Global InfoAnalytics
Mr Dankwa grounds his reading in the 2021 census. It puts Akans at 45.7% of Ghanaians, Mole-Dagbani at 18.5%, Ewe at 12.8% and Ga-Adangme at 7.1%. Those weights explain why movement among the Akans carries so much political value.
Earlier Vaultz News coverage followed Dr Ato Forson’s NDC race lead among voters. The new data tests that strength across Ghana’s ethnic map.
How Mahama Fared in 2023
In September 2023, Dr Bawumia led President Mahama among the Akans by 6.1%. President Mahama made up the ground elsewhere. He carried the Ga-Adangme by 35.4%, the Ewe by 51.6% and the Mole-Dagbani by 40.4%. Among all other ethnic groups, he led by 18.4%. His national lead stood at 14.7% at the time.
The 2026 poll shows a different pattern for Mr Asiedu Nketia. Dr Bawumia still leads him among the Akans, now by 3.4%. Mr Asiedu Nketia leads the Ga-Adangme by 30.0% and the Ewe by 46.0%, both below President Mahama’s 2023 margins.
The Mole-Dagbani contest has tightened into a “dead heat,” with Dr Bawumia edging ahead by 0.2%. Dr Bawumia also leads Mr Asiedu Nketia by 7.7% among other ethnic groups, a reversal from the 18.4% lead President Mahama held there in 2023. Nationally, Mr Asiedu Nketia leads Dr Bawumia by 6.4%, an 8.3% improvement for Dr Bawumia.
Ato Forson Reverses the Akan Result
The Dr Ato Forson and Dr Bawumia matchup tells a different story. The Finance Minister overturns the deficit that President Mahama and Mr Asiedu Nketia carried among the Akans and builds a 3.9% advantage.
Mr Dankwa calls that “a game changer for both NDC and NPP.” He then spells out what it means for the opposition. “For NPP, it confirms that they have lost their base to the NDC and polls have shown that more Akans now associate with NDC than the NPP.”
Dr Ato Forson’s numbers elsewhere also stand out. He holds a 44.6% advantage among the Ga-Adangme, against 35.4% for President Mahama in 2023. Among the Ewe, he records 57.4%, against President Mahama’s 51.6%.
In the Mole-Dagbani group, Dr Ato Forson posts 10.5%, compared with the 40.4% President Mahama recorded in 2023. Mr Dankwa adds that the poll currently suggests Mr Nketia could lose the Mole-Dagbani vote to Dr Bawumia.
What the Ethnic Breakdown Means for the NDC
The ethnic data explain why Dr Ato Forson’s national lead of 15.9% edges past President Mahama’s 2023 margin by 1.2%. The Akan swing does the heaviest lifting, since it turns the NDC’s weakest bloc into a winning one.
The pattern also fits The Vaultz News recent reporting. One report showed how young and old voters backed Dr Ato Forson, while another traced how he won young delegates as Mr Asiedu Nketia lost his core base. A separate analysis of polling data reached a similar conclusion about Dr Ato Forson outperforming President Mahama’s standing.
The September 2026 polling suggests that Dr Ato Forson’s appeal could offer the NDC a strategic advantage by narrowing the historical gap between the party and the NPP among Akan voters, Ghana’s largest ethnic bloc.
His reported 3.9% lead over Dr Bawumia marks a notable shift from the 6.1% deficit recorded for Mahama in September 2023 and strengthens Dr Ato Forson’s position in the NDC’s emerging leadership contest. However, the findings remain a snapshot of voter preferences, not a guarantee of electoral success.
The party’s ability to sustain this support will depend on whether Dr Ato Forson can translate his cross-ethnic performance into broader voter confidence, while the NPP’s response could determine whether the Akan shift persists
