Ghana’s Finance Minister, Dr Ato Cassiel Forson, leads Dr Mahamudu Bawumia among every religious group in September 2026 polling from Global InfoAnalytics, and he has nearly doubled the NDC’s advantage among Christians.
Pollster Mussa Dankwa also reports a sharp recovery for Dr Bawumia among Muslims, where President John Mahama (NDC 2024 presidential candidate) held a 34.2% lead in 2023.
Mr Dankwa compared a September 2023 poll, which tested President Mahama against Dr Bawumia, with the latest survey, which tests Johnson Asiedu Nketia and Dr Ato Forson against Dr Bawumia.
He selected the two NDC figures because every poll of delegates and general voters ranks them as the party’s frontrunners. He did not examine sub-religious groups, though he notes that Christian denominations and Muslim sects behave differently.
“Religion and ethnicity are embedded in our politics and who wins the Christian and the Muslim votes gives an indication of who would eventually emerge as the president of the Republic.”
Mussa Dankwa, Executive Director, Global InfoAnalytics
Christians Hand Ato Forson a Wider Margin
Christians represent 71% of Ghana’s population, so their vote shapes any national result. In September 2023, President Mahama led Dr Bawumia among them by 7.4%. Mr Asiedu Nketia now leads by 5.8%. Dr Ato Forson leads by 13.5%, which is close to double the figure President Mahama and Mr Asiedu Nketia posted.
Nationally, the picture follows the same direction. Dr Ato Forson leads Dr Bawumia by 15.9%, against the 14.7% President Mahama held in 2023, while Mr Nketia leads by 6.4%. The Vaultz News earlier coverage of Dr Forson’s NDC race lead tracked the same momentum inside the party.
Muslim Vote Shows Bawumia’s Recovery
The Muslim vote shows the sharpest movement in the poll. President Mahama held a 34.2% margin over Dr Bawumia among Muslims in 2023. Mussa Dankwa does not expect that result to return, and he describes the 2023 showing as “not expected to be repeated by any NDC candidate in 2028.”
The new numbers back him. Mr Asiedu Nketia leads Dr Bawumia among Muslims by 10.4%, while Dr Ato Forson leads by 21.7%. Both margins sit well below President Mahama’s 2023 lead. Mr Dankwa sums up the change in a single line. “A remarkable improvement for Dr Bawumia 3 years on.”
Dr Ato Forson still performs better than Mr Asiedu Nketia among Muslims by a wide gap, which shows why the NDC’s choice of candidate matters to this bloc.
Traditional and Other Faiths Tilt Toward Forson
Among followers of traditional religions, President Mahama led by 18.0% in 2023. Mr Asiedu Nketia now leads by 1.4%, while Dr Ato Forson leads by 22.1%, a margin larger than President Mahama’s.
Followers of other religions show a similar spread. President Mahama leads by 7.0%. Mr Asiedu Nketia leads by 10.2%, and Dr Ato Forson leads by 27.8%, the widest margin Dr Ato Forson records in any religious category.
The non-religious group tells a different story. President Mahama led Dr Bawumia among them by 24.1% in 2023. Mr Asiedu Nketia leads by only 0.8%, and Dr Ato Forson leads by 3.9%. Mr Dankwa notes that the data show Dr Bawumia has made “significant recovery” in this group.
The Ajumako Enyan-Essiam Member of Parliament Dr Ato Forson’s lead here is small, yet it stays positive, which means he leads in every religious category the poll measures.
What the Religious Breakdown Signals
The religion data show two trends moving in opposite directions. Dr Ato Forson widens the NDC’s advantage among Christians, traditional believers and followers of other religions. Among Muslims and the non-religious, the NDC advantage has shrunk from the 2023 level, even with Dr Ato Forson as the candidate.
Mr Dankwa’s ethnic findings explain part of the picture, and those figures appear in a separate news report on polling data showing Dr Ato Forson outperforming President Mahama’s standing. Related reporting also shows how young and old voters and young delegates lined up behind him.
The September 2026 findings position Dr Ato Forson as a potentially stronger NDC contender across Ghana’s religious groups, with his 13.5% advantage among Christians offering particular significance given their share of the population.
His performance also suggests he could retain an advantage among Muslim voters while limiting the NDC’s losses among non-religious voters. Yet Dr Bawumia’s recovery among Muslims and non-religious voters signals that the NPP remains competitive in groups where Mahama previously enjoyed wider margins.
For the ruling NDC, the challenge will be to turn Dr Ato Forson’s broad polling advantage into durable voter support. Whether that advantage holds will depend on how both parties mobilise their religious constituencies and address the concerns shaping voter choices ahead of the 2028 election.
READ ALSO: ISSER Demands Transparent Tracking of Extractive Expenditure Outcomes
