Global InfoAnalytics has released new polling data that puts Dr Cassiel Ato Forson at 49.4 percent against Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s 33.6 percent in a 2028 scenario. Executive Director Mussa Dankwah shared the findings in a Facebook post on Friday, October 16, 2026.
The figures come from the likely voters’ model, which counts undecided voters. Mr Dankwah tied Dr Ato Forson’s strength to the collapse of Alan Kyerematen and measured the numbers against a September 2023 poll, taken when the NDC had its flag bearer in place.
“The polling data shows that Ato Forson is in far better position than JDM when NPP was search for a candidate.”
Executive Director for Global InfoAnalytics Mussa Dankwah
Mr Dankwah opened by noting that the latest data shows more or less the same trajectory as before, which he called “very difficult polling data for the NPP in 2028.”
Under the model, Dr Ato Forson holds 49.4 percent, and Dr Bawumia follows with 33.6 percent. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong records 3.5 percent, Alan Kyerematen 1.1 percent, and Bediako 0.9 percent. Other candidates take 2.2 percent, while 9.4 percent remain undecided.
Mr Dankwah observed that both Dr Ato Forson and Dr Bawumia gained from Alan Kyeremanten’s fall, yet he identified Dr Ato Forson as “the biggest beneficiary of Alan’s slide.”
Party Loyalty and Floating Voters
The poll also breaks down loyalty inside each party. Among NDC voters, 85.6 percent back Dr Ato Forson, 5.3 percent back Dr Bawumia and 2.1 percent back Kennedy Agyapong. Among NPP voters, 84.6 percent back Dr Bawumia, 9.8 percent back Dr Ato Forson, 3.1 percent back Kennedy Agyapong and 0.5 percent back Alan Kyeremanten.
Floating voters tell a more mixed story. Dr Ato Forson attracts 48.5 percent of them, compared with the 52.7 percent John Dramani Mahama (JDM) drew against Dr Bawumia in 2023.
Dr Bawumia gets 26.6 percent, which Mr Dankwah noted is 10 percent better than his showing against President Mahama in 2023. Kennedy Agyapong records 5.2 percent. Alan’s 1.7 percent, Mr Dankwah stated, amounts to “total collapse compared to 2023.”
Mr Dankwah’s earlier post explained the logic of the comparison. He released data for the periods when each party had its flag bearer in place, September 2023 for the NDC and September 2026 for the NPP. He argued that the “beauty of comparable data settles disputes for those who believe in data science.”
The September 2023 poll, taken after Alan Kyerematen went independent, had President Mahama at 45.9 percent, Dr Bawumia at 31.2 percent, Alan at 10.9 percent, others at 5.9 percent and undecided voters at 6.2 percent. President Mahama drew 90.5 percent of NDC voters, while 3.6 percent of NDC voters backed Dr Bawumia.
The NPP looked divided in that survey. Only 65.6 percent of its voters favoured Dr Bawumia, while 15.3 percent favoured Alan and 10.6 percent favoured President Mahama. Among floating voters, President Mahama took 52.7 percent, Dr Bawumia 16.5 percent and Alan 13.5 percent.
Mussa Dankwah then ran the same test with Kennedy Agyapong as the NPP candidate. President Mahama still led with 45.6 percent, only 0.5 percent lower than against Dr Bawumia, while Kennedy Agyapong scored 30.4 percent. Mr Dankwah closed that post with a reminder: “We saw how the 2024 election went.”
The Asiedu Nketia Scenario
Mussa Dankwah also tested a contest between NDC National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia and Dr Bawumia. Under the likely voters’ model, Asiedu Nketia polls 43.0 percent against Dr Bawumia’s 36.5 percent.
Kennedy Agyapong gets 3.5 percent, Nana Kwame Bediako 2.1 percent, and Alan Kyeremanten 1.7 percent. Others take 3.0 percent, and 10.1 percent are undecided.
Support within the NDC softens in this scenario. Mr Asiedu Nketiah holds 79.4 percent of NDC voters, compared with the 85.6 percent Dr Ato Forson holds. Dr Bawumia draws 7.4 percent of NDC voters and Kennedy Agyapong 2.0 percent.
Within the NPP, 87.6 percent back Dr Bawumia, 6.8 percent back Asiedu Nketia (Dr Ato Forson had 9.8 percent), 2.5 percent back Kennedy Agyapong, and 0.6 percent back Alan.
Floating voters give Mr Asiedu Nketia 37.5 percent, well below the 52.7 percent President drew in 2023. Dr Bawumia attracts 30.0 percent of them, which Mr Dankwah described as 14 percent better than against President Mahama in 2023. Kennedy Agyapong records 6.6 percent and Alan 3.2 percent.
Mr Dankwah concluded that a race between Mr Asiedu Nketia and Dr Bawumia would unite the NPP, divide the NDC and push floating voters toward Dr Bawumia. “This is the DATA today.”
Dankwah Promises Fresh Updates
Mr Dankwah pledged to bring any future changes to readers promptly. The latest figures add to a run of polling stories on the NDC succession and the 2028 race.
The Vaultz News has tracked that contest. An earlier poll showed Dr Ato Forson leading the NDC race with 32.5 percent among voters, and a head-to-head poll put him at 54 percent against Dr Bawumia’s 35 percent.
Another report found young and old voters backing Dr Ato Forson, while a September report said he won young delegates. Pollsters have also warned that floating voters could decide the contest and that the NPP faces an uphill battle in 2028.
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