Ghana’s impressive improvement in its external trade position has raised fresh concerns about the sustainability of the country’s economic gains, with the Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER) warning that heavy dependence on gold and cocoa could leave the economy vulnerable to global commodity price shocks.

The country recorded a significant improvement in its external position in 2025, supported by a surge in export earnings that outpaced import growth. However, beneath the encouraging figures lies a structural weakness that could threaten the durability of these gains if international commodity markets turn unfavourable.

According to ISSER’s State of the Ghanaian Economy Report 2025, Ghana’s growing reliance on primary commodities, particularly gold and cocoa, exposes the country to fluctuations in global prices and changes in production conditions.

The warning comes at a time when Ghana has recorded substantial improvements in its trade balance, international reserves and exchange rate performance, raising questions about whether the country is building a resilient export economy or benefiting primarily from favourable commodity market conditions.

Ghana’s $13.8 Billion Trade Surplus Raises Questions

Ghana’s merchandise trade surplus widened dramatically from US$3.8 billion to US$13.8 billion in 2025, reflecting the strong performance of exports relative to imports.

The current account surplus also increased from US$1.6 billion to US$9.4 billion, signalling a substantial improvement in the country’s external position.

International reserves rose during the period, strengthening the country’s foreign exchange position, while the cedi appreciated against major international currencies.

These developments provided important support for economic stability, particularly after previous periods of exchange rate pressure and external imbalances.

A stronger external position can help a country meet its international payment obligations, support confidence in its currency and improve its ability to withstand economic shocks.

However, ISSER has cautioned against interpreting the improvement as evidence that Ghana has resolved the underlying weaknesses in its export structure.

The institute’s assessment highlights a critical distinction between earning more from exports and building a diversified economy capable of generating sustainable foreign exchange under different global market conditions.

Gold and Cocoa Dominate Ghana’s Export Earnings

Despite the significant improvement in export performance, Ghana continues to depend heavily on a narrow range of primary commodities.

ISSER reported that minerals accounted for 68.2% of merchandise exports, underscoring the extent to which the country’s external earnings remain concentrated in commodity-producing sectors.

Gold and cocoa are important contributors to Ghana’s export revenue, employment and economic activity. Their performance can significantly influence foreign exchange inflows and the broader economic outlook.

However, such concentration creates risks because international commodity prices are largely determined by developments beyond Ghana’s control.

A decline in gold prices could reduce export receipts, while disruptions to cocoa production could weaken foreign exchange earnings. Changes in global demand, production costs and international market conditions could also affect the country’s ability to sustain its recent external gains.

The concern is particularly important because Ghana’s improved trade position could become more difficult to maintain if the commodities supporting export growth experience a prolonged downturn.

Without a broader range of competitive exports, the country could face renewed pressure on its external accounts whenever earnings from its dominant commodities weaken.

ISSER Questions the Strength of Ghana’s Export Boom

Although Ghana’s non-traditional exports grew by 30.7%, ISSER noted that the country’s overall export base remains relatively undiversified.

The growth in non-traditional exports represents an encouraging development, suggesting that opportunities exist beyond the traditional dependence on minerals and agricultural commodities.

However, the institute believes that stronger trade figures alone do not necessarily indicate that Ghana has developed a more competitive and diversified economy.

“A strong trade surplus does not necessarily indicate that the economy has become more diversified or internationally competitive”, it warned.

The observation raises important questions about the quality and composition of Ghana’s export growth.

An economy can record substantial export earnings without necessarily developing the manufacturing capacity, technological capabilities and productive linkages required to sustain growth over the long term.

Ghana’s challenge, therefore, extends beyond increasing the value of exports. It must also expand the range of goods it sells internationally and strengthen its ability to compete in markets for processed and manufactured products.

Achieving this shift could help reduce the economy’s exposure to external shocks while creating opportunities for domestic businesses to participate more actively in international trade.

ISSER Calls for Manufacturing and Value Addition

To address these vulnerabilities, ISSER has called for deliberate efforts to diversify exports by expanding manufactured and processed products.

Increasing the share of processed exports could allow Ghana to capture more value from its natural resources rather than relying predominantly on the sale of raw commodities.

In the cocoa sector, stronger domestic processing capacity could create opportunities to export products with greater value. Similar opportunities exist in mining, where stronger industrial linkages could support the development of businesses supplying goods and services to the sector.

ISSER also emphasised the need to strengthen domestic value addition by improving processing capacity and building stronger connections between agriculture, mining and domestic industry.

Such linkages could help local businesses benefit more directly from the country’s natural resource wealth.

Expanding domestic processing could also create employment opportunities, encourage investment in productive industries and strengthen the contribution of manufacturing to economic growth.

However, achieving these outcomes would require sustained investment in productive capacity, infrastructure, technology and the development of competitive local enterprises.

Ghana Must Build Stronger External Defences

ISSER has further urged Ghana to strengthen its external resilience by sustaining reserve buffers, improving export competitiveness and reducing vulnerability to commodity price fluctuations.

Maintaining adequate international reserves remains important because export earnings can fluctuate sharply when global prices or domestic production conditions change.

A more diversified export base would complement these reserves by providing additional sources of foreign exchange when traditional commodity earnings weaken.

The challenge for policymakers is to ensure that the recent improvement in Ghana’s external accounts supports lasting structural transformation rather than creating a temporary sense of economic security.

Ghana’s US$13.8 billion merchandise trade surplus represents a significant achievement. However, sustaining that progress will depend on the country’s ability to broaden its productive base, increase domestic value addition and develop exports that can compete beyond traditional commodity markets.

Ultimately, the sustainability of Ghana’s external gains will depend not only on how much the country earns from gold and cocoa, but also on how effectively it transforms those earnings into a more diversified and competitive economy.