Ghana’s economy has shown a marked improvement in its trade balance, recording a substantial trade surplus of GH¢3.9 billion in the third quarter of 2024. This represents a stark contrast to the trade deficit of GH¢2.3 billion recorded in the same period last year.

This significant shift in the trade balance was primarily driven by a surge in gold exports, according to the latest quarterly trade report by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS). The growth in gold exports, which accounted for over 60% of the country’s total export revenue, played a pivotal role in achieving this surplus.

In a significant development, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) overtook Switzerland as the leading destination for Ghana’s gold exports in Q3 2024. The UAE’s growing importance as a gold trading hub has been fueled by its role as a major re-export center and its growing demand for gold.

The GSS noted the UAE’s meteoric rise in this sector, stating, “The UAE has emerged as a leading destination for Ghana’s gold exports, with its share growing from a modest 0.7% in Q3 2021 to 40.1% in Q3 2024.”

Total trade in Q3 2024 reached a value of GH¢145.7 billion, comprising GH¢74.8 billion in exports and GH¢70.9 billion in imports. This marks a remarkable improvement in trade performance, as the country transitioned from a trade deficit in Q3 2023 to a trade surplus this year.

Gold was the standout export during the period, generating GH¢46.5 billion, a notable increase from the previous year. The yellow metal alone accounted for 62.1% of Ghana’s total export revenue, underscoring the sector’s vital role in the national economy.

Other top exports included crude petroleum, cocoa paste, manganese ore, and tuna, with these five products making up 83.2% of the total export revenue for the quarter.

GSS’s report revealed that while Ghana’s export performance showed impressive growth, imports remained robust. The total value of imports in Q3 2024 was GH¢70.9 billion, driven by the country’s demand for a range of products, including mineral fuels, machinery, and electrical equipment.

According to the report, China continued to dominate as Ghana’s largest import source, accounting for GH¢17 billion, or 24% of total imports. Other notable import partners included the United Kingdom, United Arab Emirates, India, and the Netherlands.

According to the GSS, “In Q3 2024, the top-two import products – both within the category of mineral fuels and oils – totalled GH¢12.9 billion, with gas oil leading at GH¢7 billion.”

Export Prices Surge, but Real Trade Deficit Emerges

One of the key features of Ghana’s trade performance in Q3 2024 was the significant rise in export prices. The Unit Value Index (UVI) for exports surged by 53.9% year-on-year, compared to a 26.3% rise in import prices.

This indicates that Ghana’s export commodities, especially gold, experienced substantial price increases, contributing to the nominal trade surplus.

“In Q3 2024, real values indicated a trade deficit with exports valued at GH¢23 billion and imports at GH¢27.6 billion. However, nominal values continued to reflect a trade surplus.”
Ghana Statistical Service (GSS) Q3 Report

Asia’s influence on Ghana’s import market has been growing steadily, with nearly half of all imports in Q3 2024 (48.7%) coming from Asian countries. This marks a significant increase from 42.4% in the same period of 2023.

China, as the leading source of imports, contributed GH¢17 billion to the total import bill, further cementing its position as a dominant player in Ghana’s trade relations.

The growing share of imports from Asia reflects broader trends in global trade, with Asia increasingly serving as both a key supplier of goods and a major trading partner for many countries, including Ghana.

Ghana’s trade performance in Q3 2024 marks a significant achievement, as the country transitioned from a trade deficit to a surplus largely due to the surge in gold exports.

The UAE’s rise as a leading destination for Ghana’s gold, along with continued demand from traditional markets like Switzerland and China, highlights the growing importance of the gold sector in the country’s trade profile.

However, despite the nominal surplus, the country’s real trade balance remains in deficit, underscoring the complexities of trade in a global economy marked by rising commodity prices.

As Ghana continues to benefit from its natural resource exports, managing import growth and enhancing domestic production will be critical for sustaining a healthy trade balance in the future.