The narrative of Ghana’s upstream petroleum sector has shifted from the optimism of first oil in 2010 to a sobering reality in 2025, as aging infrastructure and natural reservoir depletion take their toll on national output.
After a decade and a half of extraction, the industry has reached a plateau where the flagship Jubilee field, despite remaining the most productive asset, is entering a phase of inevitable decline.
“So having produced a depletable resource for this number of years, 15, 16 years, naturally you would see that it would begin to decline. And that is the main issue with the Jubilee field. It would naturally decline.”
Lawyer Isaac Dwamena
While the nation has benefited from two major investment cycles the Greater Jubilee and Jubilee Southeast projects, these interventions have served primarily as a buffer to prevent a more catastrophic fall in production volumes rather than as a catalyst for growth.
Isaac Dwamena, the Executive Secretary of the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), warns that the sector is at a crossroads, particularly as the TEN field’s output has crashed from an initial 40,000 barrels per day to a meager 16,000.
He notes that the lack of “investment bait” and the high-risk nature of ultra-deepwater drilling where a single well can cost upwards of $100 million have left investors “dragging their feet.”
This reluctance is exacerbated by a history of international arbitration and a failure to sign new petroleum agreements, leaving the country with no new finds to replace the depleting resources of the existing three fields.
The Geology of Disincentive and the TEN Field Crisis
The TEN field, once a cornerstone of Ghana’s energy strategy, has become a very difficult field due to its complex geological nature.
Unlike the relatively stable performance of Jubilee, which accounts for more than 50% of the total 2025 production, the TEN field has failed to ramp up according to initial projections.
This drastic fall in production is a direct result of a lack of commitment from the government side to create an environment that encourages capital-intensive reinvestment.
When global oil prices are hovering around $115 per barrel, the inability to maximize output represents a monumental fiscal loss.
Investors looking at the Ghanaian landscape see a history of how they are being treated regarding legal disputes and arbitration, which sends a chilling signal to potential newcomers. Without the necessary motivation to drill additional wells in existing fields, the additional barrels required to keep the industry afloat remain untapped beneath the ocean floor.
The Replacement Gap: A Drought in Exploration
A sustainable petroleum industry relies on a continuous cycle of exploration, discovery, and development to replace depletable resources. However, Ghana’s experience has deviated from this path, as the state has failed to add new producing assets to the current trio of Jubilee, TEN, and Sankofa Gye-Nyame (SGN).
The SGN field remains primarily a gas resource, meaning that while it supports the power sector, it cannot compensate for the plummeting crude oil revenues.
The report highlights a concerning trend: only one petroleum agreement was signed in 2025 after a long period of inactivity.
This stagnation in exploratory work means the chances of making a significant new find are diminishing exactly when the country needs it most. Without a robust pipeline of new projects, the industry is effectively cannibalizing its current assets without a strategy for what happens when the wells finally run dry.
Fiscal Implications and the Green Transition
The decline in oil production poses a direct threat to Ghana’s economic stability and its long-term energy transition goals.
As the “money-maker” of the national budget, petroleum receipts fund critical infrastructure and social programs through the Annual Budget Funding Amount (ABFA).
A sustained plummet in production levels translates to a shrinking revenue base, making the government’s GH¢4 billion intervention plans for the power grid and other infrastructure increasingly difficult to finance.
Furthermore, the energy and green transition requires substantial capital to pivot away from fossil fuels. If the upstream sector continues to decline prematurely, the bridge financing needed for renewable energy projects will vanish.
The industry is currently facing a critical turning point where the choice is clear: either restore investor confidence to spark a final wave of exploration or prepare for a rapid, unplanned exit from the global oil market that could leave the economy in a state of terminal decline.
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