Total electricity consumption to increase by 8.3 % in the next five years

Total electricity consumption of Ghana including power exports to Togo, Benin, Burkina Faso, and Mali is projected to increase from 20,773 GWh in 2021 to 28,559 GWh by 2025 at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.3 %.

This is contained in the Electricity Supply Plan (ESP) for 2020 which also captures projections for the medium term spanning 2021 to 2025.

The ESP shows that the greater part of the Electricity generated in Ghana is consumed domestically, with the rest shared among exports and the Volta Aluminum Company (VALCO). Domestic energy consumption is expected to rise from 17,564 GWh in 2021 to 21,386 GWh in 2025. Similarly, the export of electricity is expected to rise from 1,895 GWh in 2021 to 2,793 GWh in 2025. VALCO is also expected to consume 1,314 GWh in 2021 which is projected to rise to 4,380 GWh in 2025.

The Projected electricity demand over the period 2021 – 2025 is based on data collated from a load survey exercise. It consists of projected natural growth in domestic demand over the period and some Spot Loads.

“It is expected that with the deployment of the committed generation capacity, there would be adequate dependable generation capacity to meet projected demand including a reserve capacity of 18% for the period 2021 – 2023 with the highest surplus of 25.25% for 2021 and lowest of 6.82% for 2023”, the Electricity Supply Plan Committee (ESPC) assured.

A Review for the first half of 2020 showed that the total energy consumed, including losses, was 9,919.12 GWh as against the projected total energy consumption of 9,844.49 GWh. The actual energy consumed was higher than the projected by 0.76% or 74.62 GWh.

A total of 9,002.98 GWh was consumed during the same period in 2019: thus, the 2020 energy consumption represents a 10.18% or 916.14 GWh increase over that of 2019.

Further analysis carried out showed that the total energy generated in the lockdown period was 1,061.91 GWh, which represented a marginal growth of 4.9% over the generation in the corresponding period of 2019.

However, the electricity generated during the same period in 2019 was 7.4% higher than that of 2018. These analyses show that during the period of the lockdown there was stunted growth in load which was “attributed to reduced activities in the industrial and service sectors due to the COVID-19 pandemic”.

The Electricity Supply Plan (ESP) for 2020 was prepared by the Electricity Supply Plan Committee (ESPC) as per the requirement in Section-7 of the National Electricity Grid Code. The 2020 ESP presents an outlook of electricity demand and supply for 2020.

It presents a review of the Ghana power system performance in 2019, the 2020 demand forecast, and the outlook for power supply, taking into consideration all the existing sources of generation as well as ongoing projects.

It also assesses available hydro generation capacities, taking into consideration reservoir elevations at Akosombo and Bui at the beginning of the season. Additionally, it presents fuel requirements and associated cost for thermal generation needed to meet electricity demand in 2020 and evaluates the associated evacuation requirements to ensure a reliable power supply.

The 2020 ESP, further highlights the potential challenges to electricity service delivery in Ghana in 2020 and makes recommendations for actions to be taken to mitigate the potential challenges and ensure reliable power supply in 2020. Finally, it provides a medium-term outlook of electricity demand and supply for the subsequent five-year period (2021 – 2025).

The ESPC stated that a power system must have sufficient generating capacity to reliably supply the electrical energy demand and to meet its peak demand at all times.

According to the ESPC, it takes at least five years for conventional power plant projects to evolve from conception through arrangements for funding, detailed design, construction to commissioning, and commencement of commercial operation. Medium-term power system planning guides the development of the power system in the medium-term to meet future electricity demand.