Ghana recorded a trade surplus of GH₵20.5 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, marking a significant increase from the GH₵6.1 billion recorded in the same period in 2023.

This represents strong export performance relative to imports, according to data released by the Ghana Statistical Service. The total trade value for Q4 2024 stood at GH₵165.4 billion, with exports amounting to GH₵92.9 billion and imports reaching GH₵72.4 billion.

Gold remained Ghana’s leading export product, contributing GH₵49.8 billion, which accounted for 53.6% of total exports. This reflects an increase from the 50.3% recorded in Q4 2023, demonstrating the continued dominance of the mining sector in Ghana’s external trade. Other major export commodities included crude petroleum, cocoa beans, cocoa paste, and natural cocoa butter.

However, the share of mineral fuels and oils in total exports declined from 23.9% in Q4 2023 to 14.4% in Q4 2024. This suggests a shift in export composition, with other sectors playing a larger role in trade performance.

On the import side, Ghana’s top five imported products in Q4 2024 included diesel, motor spirit (super), self-propelled bulldozers, shea oil and its fractions, and crude petroleum. Diesel and motor spirit alone accounted for GH₵13.1 billion of total imports, with diesel alone representing GH₵7.2 billion, or 23.4% of all imports.

The high dependence on imported fuel products continues to put pressure on Ghana’s trade balance, despite the overall surplus. This highlights the need for policies that enhance domestic energy production and reduce reliance on imported petroleum products.

Nominal vs. Real Trade Performance

While Ghana’s nominal trade surplus of GH₵20.5 billion indicates a positive trade performance, the real trade balance—adjusted for inflation—tells a different story. In real terms, Ghana recorded a trade deficit of GH₵2.2 billion in Q4 2024, meaning that the country imported more goods and services than it exported when inflation is factored in.

This marks the third consecutive quarter in which Ghana has reported a nominal trade surplus, showing growth in total trade value at current market prices. However, the real trade data suggests that inflationary pressures are eroding some of the gains made in nominal trade.

From the first to the fourth quarter of 2024, the total nominal trade value increased by GH₵57.8 billion, but in real terms, the increase was only GH₵7.0 billion. This indicates that a significant portion of trade growth was driven by rising prices rather than an actual increase in the volume of goods exchanged.

Meanwhile, the strong trade surplus recorded in nominal terms is a positive development for Ghana’s economy, as it suggests that export earnings are outpacing import costs. This could support the stability of the cedi and improve Ghana’s foreign exchange reserves. However, the real trade deficit raises concerns about inflationary pressures and the country’s ability to maintain long-term trade sustainability.

The dominance of gold in exports underscores the need for economic diversification. While gold remains a crucial revenue earner, greater investment in value-added industries, including manufacturing and agriculture, could help create a more balanced and resilient economy.

Similarly, the high level of fuel imports suggests the need for increased local refining capacity and alternative energy sources to reduce Ghana’s dependency on imported petroleum products.

On the hindsight, to sustain long-term trade growth, Ghana must focus on economic diversification, reducing import dependence, and strengthening domestic industries.