World emission of energy-related carbon dioxide has rebounded strongly after a deep fall in emissions early 2020, triggered by the Covid-19 crisis according to data released by the IEA on March 2, 2021.

In April 2020, global carbon dioxide emissions experienced the largest annual drop by 6%. However, recent data available indicates that global emissions as at December 2020 were 2% above that in 2019.

This upsurge in emissions emanate from the increase in economic activity across major economies causing an uptick in energy demand.

The absence of significant policy measures that could boost clean energy fuelled these emissions. As a result, many economies have begun seeing emissions climbing above pre-crisis level.

“The rebound in global carbon emissions toward the end of last year is a stark warning that not enough is being done to accelerate clean energy transitions worldwide. If governments don’t move quickly with the right energy policies, this could put at risk the world’s historic opportunity to make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions.”
Dr. Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director.

“In March 2020, the IEA urged governments to put clean energy at the heart of their economic stimulus plans to ensure a sustainable recovery. But our numbers show we are returning to carbon-intensive business-as-usual.
This year is pivotal for international climate action – and it began with high hopes.
But these latest numbers are a sharp reminder of the immense challenge we face in rapidly transforming the global energy system,” he added.

Current Global Trends

Current trends in carbon emissions indicate the challenge of reducing emissions while also ensuring economic growth and energy security. In spite of the growing commitments and pledges, countries and companies to accelerate efforts to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.

The rebound in the emissions show exactly how the gains can be eroded. Suppose these ambitions are not met with rapid and tangible action.

Among major economies, country-specific emissions show that emerging markets like China emitted 0.8%, or 75 million tonnes of carbon emissions in the whole of 2020 as compared to 2019 levels which was mainly driven by China’s economic recovery over the course of the year.

Evidently, China was the first major economy to emerge from the pandemic and also the only economy to experienced growth in 2020.

India’s emissions increased above 2019 levels from September 2020. Thus, the ease in restrictions began pacing up economic activity.

The rebound in transport activity in Brazil beyond April 2020 increased demand in oil. And demand in gas also picked up in later months. These ensuing events led to an increase in emissions throughout the last quarter above the 2019 level.

Emissions in the United States also dropped to its lowest ebb (10%) in 2020. Albeit, on a month-on-month basis, emissions began climbing up. Available data suggests that, December emissions in the US inched gradually to 2019 levels.

Again, a rebound in economic activity coupled with the combination of higher natural gas prices and colder weather led to an increase in coal use.

Expectations, going forward

“If current expectations for a global economic rebound this year are confirmed – and in the absence of major policy changes in the world’s largest economies – global emissions are likely to increase in 2021.

“Nonetheless, there are still reasons for optimism. China has set an ambitious carbon-neutrality target; the new US administration has rejoined the Paris Agreement and is putting climate at the heart of its policy-making; the European Union is pushing ahead with its Green Deal and sustainable recovery plans; India’s stunning success with renewables could transform its energy future; and the United Kingdom is building global momentum toward stronger climate action at COP26 in November.”