The Head of the International Energy Agency has warned that Russia may stop supplying gas to Europe this winter.

Fatih Birol said he believes a complete shutdown is not the most likely scenario, but that Europe needs to work on contingency plans just in case. In recent weeks several European countries said they received significantly less Russian gas than they expected.

But Russian officials denied any allegations suggesting that it was deliberate, but rather, blamed it on technical issues. Before the invasion on Ukraine, Europe imported about 40% of its natural gas from Russia but that figure has now fallen to about 20%.

‘Strategic’ Reductions

Mr. Birol said he believes that recent Russian reductions in gas supply are “strategic”. The falls are making it harder for European countries to fill up their gas storage and increasing Russia’s leverage this winter. “I wouldn’t rule out Russia continuing to find different issues here and there, and continuing to find excuses to further reduce gas deliveries to Europe and maybe even cut it off completely.” Mr Birol told reporters in an interview.

Last week, reports indicated that the flow of natural gas through Nord Stream 1, one of the main pipelines from Russia to Europe, was just 40% of capacity. Many experts are sceptical of the Russian explanation that this was caused by “technical issues”. Across Europe, shortfalls in gas supply continue to be reported. On Friday, June 17, 2022, the Italian energy firm, Eni, intimated that it only received half of the gas that it was expecting from the Russian state-controlled gas giant, Gazprom, while Slovakia and Austria have also reported falls in expected supplies.

France on the other hand also disclosed that it has not received Russian gas from Germany since Wednesday, June 15, 2022, while Poland, Bulgaria, Finland, Denmark and the Netherlands have their Russian gas deliveries suspended after they refused a demand to pay in Russian Roubles. Last month (May 2022), European countries agreed to try to protect themselves from the volatility of gas prices by filling up their storage facilities. They jointly committed to reaching at least 80% capacity by November 2022, with the latest data suggesting they are at about 55% capable.

The way Forward

Mr. Birol averred the ongoing gas crisis now, justified emergency short-term measures to reduce demand, such as increasing the use of coal-fired power stations, and if possible, prolonging the life of nuclear power plants. If there was a complete shutdown of Russian gas supply, he said drastic measures could be needed. “I don’t exclude the possibility that Europe will need a planned and orderly rationing of gas,” Mr. Birol said.

“I don’t say this is the base scenario, but looking at the last several months, if not several years, the experiences we have had with Russia as an energy partner, this is a scenario we cannot afford to exclude for the time being.”
Head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol