Prominent political scientist, and Director for European Studies at the University of Ghana, Dr. Kwame Asah Asante, provided a deep analysis of how political parties should approach projections and predictions made by institutions like Fitch Solutions.
His comments came during a discussion about the impact of election predictions made by Fitch Solutions, which forecasted a victory for the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) in Ghana’s upcoming December 7th elections.
Dr. Asah Asante started by emphasizing the role of political predictions in shaping the strategic direction of parties. While acknowledging the value of these forecasts, he warned against relying solely on them.
“Normally, when that research is done, it is important that the political party would take them, you know, try to interrogate them and then use them as a guide as they move on. It does not necessarily mean that when they say you won and you go to sleep, you are going to win.”
Dr. Kwame Asah Asante Political scientist, and Director for European Studies at the University of Ghana
Dr. Asah Asante emphasized that hard work is necessary regardless of the poll’s predictions. Even if a party is projected to lose, the findings should prompt them to make changes, adapt their strategies, and improve their chances.
“It calls for hard work, and if we are losing, it doesn’t mean that you are losing. You need to work hard and then also turn your opportunities around so for me some of these things are pointers that really energize the system and make it possible for political Parties to be able to work efficiently.”
Dr. Kwame Asah Asante Political scientist, and Director for European Studies at the University of Ghana
Influence on Campaign Messaging and Strategy
One of the major points Dr. Asah Asante made was that predictions could significantly impact the messaging and strategy of political parties, especially as they approach election day. He emphasized; “Information like this can be packaged and sent as a campaign message, and it will definitely influence some people in deciding the choices that they want to make.”
However, he stressed that issues like the economy, infrastructure development, corruption, and unemployment remain key influencers of voter decisions.
Voters look beyond poll projections and instead focus on more pressing concerns.
“There are more important factors are issue of the economy, issue of infrastructure development, issue of corruption, a fight against corruption, unemployment, and the rest of them.”
Dr. Kwame Asah Asante Political scientist, and Director for European Studies at the University of Ghana
Constituency-Specific Issues and Election Dynamics
He mentioned that even within the context of national elections, localized issues could have a significant impact. He noted; “Each constituency has its problems, and that will be brought to bear in deciding who wins at a particular constituency.”
This, he explained, makes election predictions more complex, as individual constituency dynamics may not always be reflected in national-level forecasts.
Political Spending and the “Political Business Cycle”
One of the critical aspects of Dr. Asah Asante’s analysis was his focus on the potential for increased political spending during election campaigns, especially by the incumbent government. He acknowledged that the fear of the incumbent party ramping up spending to enhance its chances was real. He emphasized; “The economies would tell you what they call the political business cycle. That during election, people spend so much to the detriment of the economy.”
He added that this cycle of pre-election spending followed by post-election attempts to rebuild the economy has been a recurring pattern in Ghana. He reiterated; “It creates a certain cyclical problem of… building the economy, destroying it during the election, and rebuilding after winning the election.”
Money in Politics: Impact on Voter Choices
While discussing the role of money in politics, Dr. Asah Asante noted that while money is frequently used by both the incumbent and opposition parties to influence voters, it is not always a decisive factor in election outcomes.
However, he asserted that voter choices are influenced by a variety of factors, not just financial incentives. He added; “In our part of the world, because of poverty and economic challenges, people gravitate towards, you know, hampers and gratifications and all those things.”
Other critical factors, such as the state of the economy, infrastructure development, corruption, and unemployment, play a more significant role in determining electoral outcomes. He asserted; “It’s not necessarily the case that when you throw money, you win the election.”
Dr. Kwame Asah Asante’s reflections on the importance of election predictions and the various factors that influence voter choices provide valuable insights into the complex dynamics of elections in Ghana.
While poll projections are a useful tool for political parties, they must be approached with caution. Parties need to focus on their core issues and work hard to win voter support. Furthermore, while financial incentives play a role in electioneering, they are not the ultimate decider of electoral success.
As Dr. Asah Asante highlighted, the real issues that drive voter decisions are the economy, infrastructure, corruption, unemployment, and local constituency concerns. Political parties, therefore, need to strike a careful balance between using predictions to inform their strategy and addressing the substantive issues that voters care about.
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