The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) faces an escalating crisis as M23 rebels advance steadily toward Goma, the strategic eastern city at the heart of the mineral-rich North Kivu province.
The Congolese army (FARDC) is struggling to hold its ground, with experts pointing to internal weaknesses and alleged support for the rebels from neighboring Rwanda.
Fighting between M23 and FARDC has intensified in recent weeks, forcing over 230,000 people to flee their homes since January, according to the United Nations. Hospitals in the region are overwhelmed with casualties, underscoring the dire humanitarian toll of the conflict.
The M23 armed group, which has occupied hills around Goma for nearly two years, is tightening its hold on the area. The group recently captured Masisi, a significant administrative hub 80 kilometers northwest of Goma, and Minova, a critical trading town 50 kilometers away.
The closest clashes are now just 10 kilometers from Goma, sparking fears of an imminent assault. The rebels’ control of surrounding areas threatens to choke the city’s economy, particularly by targeting its vital port access.
Despite the FARDC and allied militias establishing defensive lines, experts doubt their ability to repel a full-scale offensive. Reagan Miviri, a researcher at the Congolese Ebuteli institute, warned that “nothing prevents the M23 and Rwanda from trying to take Goma.”
A July UN expert report alleged that 3,000 to 4,000 Rwandan soldiers were fighting alongside M23, giving Rwanda “de facto control” of the group’s operations. Kigali has consistently denied territorial aggression in the DRC, but tensions between the two nations remain high.
Efforts to broker peace have faltered. A December meeting between Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, part of the Angola-led peace process, was canceled due to disagreements. With the Luanda process stalled and diminished international pressure, Rwanda appears emboldened, observers say.
Kagame recently hinted at geopolitical shifts, stating he was “certain” that global dynamics, particularly regarding eastern DRC, would change. Some analysts speculate that a potential return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency could influence Rwanda’s stance on the conflict.
A History of Instability
The M23 group, formed in 2012 from a mutiny within the Congolese army, briefly seized Goma in November 2012 before being pushed out by FARDC forces with UN and international support. By the end of 2013, the group was driven into hiding, only to resurface in late 2021.
Since then, the Congolese army has struggled to reclaim lost territory. Experts cite challenges including corruption, inadequate equipment, low morale, and poor discipline within FARDC ranks.
Remi Dodd, a sub-Saharan Africa analyst at RANE Network, noted that while FARDC occasionally achieves local victories, systemic issues undermine its broader effectiveness. “All of these challenges really impede the ability of the FARDC to respond to the M23,” Dodd said.
The UN peacekeeping mission in Goma, MONUSCO, has yet to clarify its role should the city come under attack. Meanwhile, the Southern African Development Community (SADC) forces deployed to support FARDC — including troops from South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi — have faced criticism for their “inaction.”
Observers argue that the lack of decisive action from SADC forces highlights the complexities of addressing the conflict, which is rooted in decades of regional instability and competition over the DRC’s vast mineral wealth.
As the M23 rebels close in on Goma, the city’s fate hangs in the balance. The potential fall of this strategic hub would mark a devastating setback for the DRC and could further destabilize the region.
Efforts to resolve the crisis through diplomacy remain uncertain, leaving Goma’s residents and the broader region bracing for what could be a critical turning point in the ongoing conflict.
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