Ghana’s gold industry is projected to experience strong growth over the next two years, further consolidating its role as the backbone of the country’s mining sector.

According to the Minerals Income and Investment Fund (MIIF), national gold output is expected to rise from 5.1 million ounces in 2024 to approximately 6.3 million ounces by 2026, driven largely by rapid expansion within the small-scale mining segment.

The outlook, contained in MIIF’s Economic and Market Outlook and Strategic Investment Orientation for 2026, underscores gold’s enduring importance to Ghana’s resource economy at a time when global demand, price dynamics and domestic reforms are reshaping the sector.

“Building on the latest production trend, gold is expected to further entrench its role as the anchor of Ghana’s mining sector,” MIIF noted, adding that the projected increase reflects structural shifts rather than short-term output spikes.

Small-Scale Mining Emerges as Key Growth Driver

MIIF’s projections show that growth in Ghana gold production is being overwhelmingly driven by small-scale mining, a segment that has expanded significantly over the past few years.

Output from small-scale operations is forecast to increase more than fourfold, rising from about 0.7 million ounces in 2022 to over 3.2 million ounces by 2026.

This surge will fundamentally alter the production mix within the sector, pushing small-scale miners’ contribution to just above 50 percent of national output. MIIF described the trend as transformative, but one that comes with regulatory and environmental implications.

“Growth is overwhelmingly driven by the small-scale segment,” the report stated, highlighting the urgency for stronger oversight as the sector becomes the dominant force in Ghana’s gold production landscape.

In contrast to the rapid growth expected from small-scale miners, large-scale gold producers are projected to remain broadly stable over the medium term.

MIIF estimates that output from large-scale operations will ease slightly from around 3.0 million ounces in 2022 to a low of approximately 2.8 million ounces in 2025, before recovering to roughly 3.0 million ounces by 2026.

This stability reflects operational maturity, cost pressures and limited near-term expansion across existing mines. While large-scale producers remain critical to export earnings and employment, the data suggests that future growth momentum in Ghana gold production will increasingly come from smaller, locally rooted operations.

Call for Stronger Regulation and Formalisation

MIIF warned that the evolving production structure underscores the need for urgent policy and regulatory interventions, particularly as small-scale mining assumes a majority share of output.

Without improved governance, the gains from rising production could be undermined by environmental damage, revenue leakages and weak compliance.

“This evolving production mix underscores the need for continued formalization, stronger regulatory oversight, and enhanced governance frameworks.”
MIIF’s Economic and Market Outlook and Strategic Investment Orientation for 2026

The report stressed that such measures are essential to support environmental compliance while improving the state’s ability to deepen royalty capture.

MIIF argued that strengthening institutions and enforcement mechanisms will be key to ensuring long-term sector resilience and maximizing national benefits from increased gold output.

“The Damang mine is expected to be in the late stages of its transition to Government ownership ahead of a full handover,” MIIF noted, adding that this shift points to subdued output and tighter margins compared to historical performance.

According to MIIF, the mine is entering the late stages of this transition, with operations increasingly focused on processing existing stockpiles rather than extracting fresh ore.

As production slows, attention is turning to feasibility studies aimed at assessing redevelopment options and potential extensions to the mine’s operational life after the handover.

Gold Prices Offer Revenue Support

Despite operational constraints at Damang, MIIF indicated that a supportive global gold price environment could help cushion revenue pressures in the short term.

With prices projected at around US$5,000 per ounce during the year, gold exports are expected to continue providing fiscal and foreign exchange support.

“A supportive gold price environment should provide partial revenue support,” the report stated, even as near-term prospects are shaped by lower throughput and ongoing technical assessments.

Overall, MIIF’s outlook presents a picture of a gold sector in transition, marked by rising production, shifting dynamics and growing policy demands.

As Ghana gold production climbs toward the 6.3 million-ounce mark by 2026, the challenge for policymakers will be to balance growth with sustainability, ensuring that increased output translates into long-term economic value.