Higher petroleum product prices could confront Ghanaian consumers if the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran persists, the Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), Dr Riverson Oppong, has cautioned.
Although he dismissed fears of imminent fuel shortages on the local market, Dr Oppong stressed that sustained geopolitical instability in the Middle East would inevitably carry cost implications for domestic consumers. “The impact on Ghana will obviously be reflected in rising prices. There will certainly be a surge,” he said.
Dr Oppong explained that Ghana remains a net importer of petroleum products, sourcing more than 60 percent of its domestic fuel requirements from the international market despite having some level of local crude production.
This structural dependence, he noted, leaves the country highly vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices.
“As long as we import the majority of our refined products, any spike in international prices will filter through to our local pricing windows.”
Dr Riverson Oppong, Chief Executive Officer of COMAC
The warning comes at a time when global oil markets are reacting sharply to escalating hostilities in the Middle East, pushing benchmark crude prices upward and raising concerns about supply disruptions.
No Immediate Shortage Fears
Despite the tense outlook, Dr Oppong assured consumers that availability and accessibility of fuel are unlikely to be compromised in the short term.
He pointed to the operationalisation of the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) and the presence of the Dangote Refinery, the largest refinery in the region, as critical buffers against potential scarcity. “Availability and accessibility may not be a problem for us, but affordability is the big question,” he emphasized.
According to him, while supply chains may remain intact, the affordability of petroleum products will largely depend on how long the geopolitical tensions persist and how severely global benchmarks respond.
His comments follow the opening of the first pricing window for March, which has already recorded marginal increases in fuel prices. The bi-weekly pricing window began on March 1 and will close on March 15.
COMAC is projecting petrol prices to rise by 2.89 percent to approximately GH¢12.04 per litre, while diesel is expected to increase by 0.86 percent to about GH¢13.22 per litre.
Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), however, is forecast to decline slightly to GH¢13.87 per kilogram, marking its first reduction in 2026.
The adjustments, according to COMAC, are largely influenced by rising crude and refined petroleum product prices on the international market.
The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has also confirmed upward adjustments to the price floor for the March 1–15 pricing window.
Petrol is now selling at a minimum of GH¢10.46 per litre, up from GH¢10.24, while diesel has increased to GH¢11.42 per litre.
These changes represent increases of roughly 2.1 percent for petrol and 0.7 percent for diesel.
However, industry experts warn that these initial increments may only be a precursor to steeper hikes in the second half of March if the conflict between US–Israeli forces and Iran continues to intensify.
Global Oil Markets on Edge
Brent crude prices surged more than 10 percent in early trading on March 2, reaching US$80.11 per barrel. Analysts suggest the global benchmark could climb toward US$90 per barrel in the coming days should tensions persist.
A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would significantly exacerbate the situation. Approximately 20 percent of the world’s crude oil passes through the narrow waterway, making it one of the most strategic maritime routes in global energy trade.
Recent attacks by the Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps on oil tankers in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz have heightened fears of supply disruptions. Three US and British vessels have reportedly been targeted, raising insurance premiums and increasing risk assessments for maritime transit.
Dr Oppong underscored the ripple effects on energy markets. “Qatar has also halted natural gas production after being targeted by bombings,” he said.
“A major refinery with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day has been shut down, and it is unclear when operations will resume. This shows that a key supply link has been disrupted, which will drive up demand for diesel and petrol as supplies are constrained.”
Dr Riverson Oppong, Chief Executive Officer of COMAC
While Ghana may avoid outright shortages, the broader concern remains affordability. Rising pump prices often translate into higher transport fares, increased production costs for businesses and inflationary pressures across the economy.
Dr Oppong’s warning underscores the interconnectedness of global geopolitics and domestic fuel pricing. Even without direct physical disruption to Ghana’s supply chain, international price movements are quickly reflected in local pump prices under the country’s deregulated pricing regime.
As the March pricing window progresses, consumers and businesses will be watching global oil benchmarks closely, aware that sustained instability abroad could soon translate into higher petroleum product prices at home.
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