According to Dr. Catherine Gegout, Associate Professor of International Relations at the University of Nottingham, Canada’s associate membership of the European Union would not amount to the creation of a new geopolitical “third bloc”, but could instead form part of a wider network of economic and security partnerships aimed at reducing vulnerabilities in an increasingly contested international system.
Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney explicitly rejected in his address to the European Parliament, the idea that closer Canada-EU relations would be directed against the United States or constitute a rival bloc.
“Canada and the EU would not be forming a ‘third bloc’. Instead, and possibly with Australia, New Zealand and Japan, they would encourage strong economic and security relations, with some freedom of movement for young people.”
Catherine Gegout
Such an arrangement could have practical benefits in areas where both Canada and Europe are seeking to reduce strategic vulnerabilities. Supply chains for critical minerals, energy and advanced technologies have become increasingly important as governments seek greater control over resources and industries considered strategically significant.
Gegout noted that closer cooperation could help address “some supply-chain vulnerabilities” but cautioned against assuming that a new institutional relationship would provide comprehensive protection against economic or political shocks. “There is no guarantee that democratic norms would be protected given the internal politics of all these states and institutions,” she said.
That qualification is significant because the proposed partnership would bring together governments with different domestic political priorities. The durability of any agreement would therefore depend not only on the formal arrangements negotiated between Canada and the EU, but also on the willingness of successive governments to maintain them.
Trade To Provide The Most Immediate Gains
For Canada, the most direct economic benefit of deeper European integration would likely be increased trade. “Concrete economic gains are increased trade, and this is likely,” Gegout said.
The potential is significant because the EU is already an important Canadian trading partner. Canada and the EU conduct substantial trade under the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, or CETA, which has been provisionally applied since 2017.
Associate membership could potentially broaden that relationship beyond conventional trade liberalisation by linking it with cooperation in areas including critical minerals, clean energy, artificial intelligence, space and financial services.
The arrangement could also create a less conventional benefit: greater mobility for young people. Gegout described the possibility of allowing young people to live, study and work in Canada and EU member states as “the more unusual gain” from the proposed relationship.
She stated that such mobility could have “long term implications in terms of giving opportunities to all in terms of education and employment.” The economic benefits, however, would not come without domestic trade-offs.
“Domestic trade-offs are especially in the economic field, and they are already present in the framework of the trade agreement between the EU and Canada.”
Catherine Gegout
Agriculture is one area where greater integration could produce competing interests. “Farmers on both sides of the Atlantic are worried about competition,” she said.
That means deeper economic integration would involve distributional effects within both Canada and the EU, with some industries potentially gaining greater access to markets while others face increased competition.
Defence Cooperation To Complement Rather Than Replace NATO
Defence is another central component of Carney’s proposal, but the scope for a separate Canada-EU security relationship is shaped by the existing NATO framework.
Canada and most EU member states are already members of NATO. The EU countries outside the alliance are Austria, Cyprus, Ireland and Malta.
As a result, deeper Canada-EU defence cooperation would not necessarily require the creation of a parallel military alliance.
Instead, Gegout said that cooperation could focus on procurement and Canada’s participation in EU-led operations. She said, “Reinforcing defence cooperation will only be about buying Canadian and European military assets, and Canada participating in EU operations in conflict management.”
This could give the relationship a practical defence dimension while leaving NATO as the principal framework for collective defence between Canada and most EU member states.
The longer-term challenge, Gegout argued, is also linked to Europe’s own strategic autonomy. “Concrete security gains are more long term, as the EU itself needs to become more independent from the US military industry,” she said.
The proposed arrangement would nevertheless have limits. It would not remove NATO’s central role in transatlantic defence, nor would it automatically resolve differences among European governments over military priorities, procurement or foreign policy.
A Network Rather Than A New Geopolitical Bloc
The broader significance of the Canada-EU initiative may therefore lie less in creating a new alliance than in building additional connections among economies and democracies.
Carney has argued that closer relations with Europe can strengthen Canada’s ability to withstand external pressure while preserving its sovereignty. The EU, meanwhile, is seeking to deepen relationships with partners as it confronts questions over economic security, supply chains, defence capabilities and its dependence on external markets and technologies.
Gegout’s assessment suggests that the proposed associate membership could contribute to those objectives, particularly through trade, supply-chain cooperation, defence procurement and mobility for young people. But it would not eliminate the underlying political and economic risks.
The initiative could make Canada and Europe more interconnected without making them immune to pressure. Its effectiveness would ultimately depend on the agreements negotiated, the willingness of governments to sustain them and the ability of both sides to manage the domestic interests that deeper integration would inevitably affect.
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