Mahama Approval Rating Dip Puts Reset Agenda Under Early Pressure

The latest Global InfoAnalytics poll has handed the Mahama administration its first clear warning since taking office, with declines across all four of its key performance indicators between June and September 2026. The drop extends beyond the President’s approval rating, now 65%, into how Ghanaians feel about their living standards and their hopes for the year ahead.

The data carries three implications for the government. Its economic recovery message is losing force with ordinary voters, a large pool of former supporters now sits undecided, and early succession politics within the ruling National Democratic Congress threatens to split attention between delivery and 2028.

The Recovery Message Is Losing Its Grip

For most of its first 18 months, the administration could point to strong public goodwill as proof that its reset agenda was working. President Mahama’s approval soared in the early months, held firm at 67% in December 2025 and hit a record 71% in June 2026.

The September numbers challenge that narrative where it matters most. The share of Ghanaians who say their standard of living improved over the past year fell from 57% to 48%, meaning fewer than half now report feeling better off. Optimism about the next 12 months fell 11 points, from 68% to 57%, the steepest decline of any indicator.

This gap between official recovery figures and household experience poses the biggest political risk to the administration. Governments can defend lower approval ratings, but they struggle to recover once voters stop believing tomorrow will be better than today.

Data analyst Alfred Appiah links the slide to recent fuel price increases and growing public dissatisfaction with governance, two pressures that land directly on household budgets and on the government’s promise to do things differently.

A Soft Middle the Government Can Still Win Back

The most important finding lies in where the lost support went. Alfred Appiah’s breakdown shows that much of the decline moved into indecision rather than hostility.

Of the 11 points lost on optimism about the future, six moved to pessimism and five to no opinion. On direction of the country, the six lost points split evenly between those who now say Ghana is headed the wrong way and those without a view.

On living standards over the past year, only two of the nine lost points moved to respondents who say their conditions worsened. “This suggests that with effective policy execution, the government could turn around those sentiments once again,” Appiah wrote.

That window will not stay open indefinitely. Undecided voters who see no change often settle into disappointment, and the next quarterly poll will show whether this group returns or hardens into opposition.

The administration’s 2027 budget, fuel pricing decisions and visible progress on its flagship programmes now serve as the tests that will decide which way they move.

Net Scores Signal a Narrowing Cushion

The net sentiment figures, which subtract negative responses from positive ones, show how quickly the government’s cushion has thinned. Net presidential approval fell from +48 to +37 in three months, while net optimism about living standards dropped from +47 to +30.

On direction of the country, presidential approval and future living standards, the September readings are the lowest since the administration took office in January 2025. Every indicator remains positive, however, and far above the levels of early 2024, when net sentiment on the direction of the country stood at −46 under the previous government.

A clear majority still backs President Mahama’s leadership, which gives the administration a base from which to recover rather than a crisis to manage. The regional picture reinforces that point.

The Ashanti Region remains the only region where disapproval is widespread, suggesting the decline reflects general unease about the economy rather than a collapse in the government’s national coalition.

Succession Politics Arrives Early

The poll’s second finding may prove more difficult for the administration to manage. Global InfoAnalytics also tested early preferences for the NDC’s 2028 presidential candidate, with party chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketia leading at 27%.

With President Mahama having ruled out a third term, a position 65% of Ghanaians supported in a July survey by the same firm, succession talk carries a lame duck risk for a President not yet halfway through his term.

When party figures begin to position for 2028, ministers and party structures can divide their loyalties, and the political capital needed for difficult reforms, including the constitutional review process, becomes harder to marshal.

The reaction from within government shows how sensitive the issue has become. Mustapha Gbande, Deputy Director of Operations at the Presidency, openly disputed the findings, arguing that polling on the next president less than two years into the term “kills goodwill” and is “disrespectful to the President.“

His objection points to a real dilemma for the ruling party. Leaders can discourage early succession talk, but they cannot stop pollsters, the media or ambitious politicians from pursuing it, and public resistance from the Presidency risks drawing more attention to the contest.

What the Administration Must Do Next

The September poll does not show a government in trouble, but it does show one that can no longer count on goodwill alone. The drop in optimism signals that voters are shifting from judging the administration on promise to judging it on results, a shift every government faces but one that has arrived sooner than many in the NDC expected.

For President Mahama, the path forward runs through the kitchen table. Easing the pressure from fuel prices, showing tangible gains in living standards, and keeping the succession contest from overshadowing governance will determine whether September becomes a temporary dip or the turning point of his second tenure.

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