Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso are on the brink of a historic move as they prepare to officially withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Wednesday, January 29, 2025.

This impending exit marks the culmination of a year-long standoff between the three military-led nations and the West African bloc, signaling a profound shift in regional alliances.

The decision to leave ECOWAS was formalized a year ago when the three countries notified the bloc of their intent to withdraw. However, ECOWAS requires a 12-month notice period for such actions to take effect.

Despite appeals to extend the timeline by six months to allow for further dialogue, the Sahelian nations have stood firm, insisting on an immediate departure.

This development follows a series of military coups that brought new regimes to power in Mali (2020), Burkina Faso (2022), and Niger (2023). In response, ECOWAS suspended their memberships and imposed sanctions, urging a return to civilian governance.

However, the military leaders rejected these demands, accusing the bloc of “inhuman, illegal, and illegitimate” actions and aligning themselves with the newly formed Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

The AES, established by the three nations, represents a unified front aimed at addressing shared security and economic challenges.

Leaders of the alliance have criticized ECOWAS for failing to adequately support their fight against jihadist insurgencies that have ravaged the Sahel for over a decade.

They have also accused the bloc of being subservient to France, their former colonial ruler, and have pivoted towards alliances with nations like Russia, Turkey, and Iran.

The AES plans to implement several significant initiatives following their official withdrawal. These include the introduction of a shared passport and the establishment of a unified military force of 5,000 troops to combat terrorism in the region. These measures underscore their commitment to self-reliance and regional cooperation.

Diplomatic Tensions and Regional Repercussions

The looming withdrawal has strained relations between the AES and ECOWAS member states. Niger, for instance, has accused Benin of hosting jihadist training bases and Nigeria of serving as a “rear base” for destabilization efforts. Both countries have denied these allegations, highlighting the deepening divisions in the region.

Meanwhile, Togo and Ghana have emerged as key players in this evolving landscape. Togo, whose port in Lomé is a critical supply route for the landlocked AES nations, has hinted at aligning with the alliance. Togo’s foreign minister recently stated that the country is open to exploring closer ties with the AES, a move driven by economic interests.

Ghana, under the leadership of newly elected President John Dramani Mahama, has also reached out to the AES. Mahama has engaged in talks with AES leaders and announced plans to appoint a special envoy to the alliance, signaling a potential shift in Ghana’s foreign policy approach.

The impending withdrawal has reignited discussions about the future of ECOWAS and its role in West Africa. Critics argue that the bloc must reform and refocus on its economic agenda, moving away from its current emphasis on governance and democracy.

Gilles Yabi, founder of the West African think tank Wathi, emphasized the need for transformation. “Everyone is aware of the need for ECOWAS reform, towards an ECOWAS of the people,” Yabi said. He added that the AES could serve as a testing ground for innovative approaches to regional cooperation.

Despite the impending split, many agree on the importance of maintaining ties between ECOWAS and the AES. “We must strengthen relations to preserve economic connections and address shared security challenges,” Yabi urged.

As the Sahelian nations prepare to chart their own path, the stakes are high for both the AES and ECOWAS. The region’s ongoing struggles with jihadist violence and economic instability underscore the urgent need for unity and collaboration, even as alliances shift and new blocs emerge.