According to S&P Global, Ghana’s population expansion must be met with increased GDP growth to improve the average incomes of Ghanaians.
The research firm expected a slow but steady growth in Ghana in 2025 and 2026 since the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. Ghana has had a remarkable 2025 by restoring the economy and sustaining a steady path to further growth.
The firm extended it to the African outlook, where the continent is projected to “benefit from more benign inflation dynamics, helped by lower food and energy prices, as well as from a weaker US dollar, reducing the cost of imports.”
Though there is an ongoing tariff-related tension in global trade, Ghana and most countries in the sub-region are not much affected, as trade occurs more with China than with the United States. In the first half of 2025, Ghana’s exports to the United States were just 2.9 percent of total exports, while its exports to China were approximately 7.6 percent of total exports. Therefore, the Ghanaian economy is sheltered from the direct impact of the global trade tension.
According to S&P Global, “beyond the next few years, faster economic growth is needed to improve living standards for a rapidly growing population. Africa [including Ghana] has the opportunity to unlock its vast critical mineral resources to accelerate growth and narrow the large income gap between the region and the rest of the world.”
Factors to Support Steady GDP Growth
The firm expects household spending to remain a key growth driver for most African economies. Household spending in Ghana accounted for 80.75 percent of GDP in the first quarter of 2025 and 80.59 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2025. This indicates a strong private spending growth driven by lower inflation and a stable Ghana Cedi.
Fitch Solutions predicted real household spending to grow by 2.5 percent to about GHȻ 129.7 billion by the end of 2025, demonstrating improved purchasing power. Therefore, the stability of the economy and its macroeconomic indicators need to be sustained to grow household or private spending due to its huge impact on Ghana’s GDP growth.
S&P Global projects that “GDP growth rates in most African economies over the next couple of years will be similar to those averaged in the post-COVID-19 period between 2021 and 2024.”
Ghana’s inflation has always been subject to significant volatility, and the current disinflation needs to be protected with stringent measures, S&P Global alluded. The recent decline in the prices of goods will continue to support household spending in the coming quarters and years.
Furthermore, S&P Global mentioned that the United States dollar’s recent weakness gave Ghana and other African countries the urge to boost growth dynamics. The weakened dollar has strengthened many currencies in Africa. However, making exceptional progress with an advantaged situation requires leadership, as in the case of Ghana.
Per the firm’s projections, the dollar is expected to remain weak going into 2026 due to the lower United States interest rates. “A weaker dollar helps lower import costs, amplifying the benefits of lower food and energy prices on noncore inflation, as most of these goods are priced in dollars,” the firm stated.
The United States Federal Reserve’s recent renewal of interest rate cuts, which S&P Global expects to continue into 2026, should help lower financing costs in Ghana and most African economies.
Ghana, unlike many African countries, is making progress in managing its debt, hence, the economy of Ghana can fully benefit from lower United States interest rates. However, there remains a bump in the road for Ghana with a reduction in official development assistance and financing challenges from the United States, though its interest rate remains low.
In addition, global prices for metals such as copper, gold, and platinum — key exports for several African economies — have surged in 2025. According to the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), Ghana’s gold export constituted 50.8 percent of total exports in the first quarter of 2025 and 64 percent of total exports in the first half of the year, with earnings surging past 2024’s total earnings. Gold bullion was by far the export in Ghana, valued at GHȻ 60.7 billion in the second quarter of 2025.
Amid high geopolitical uncertainty, gold’s safe-haven status is expected to maintain an elevated price in the coming year. “Uncertainty in US trade policy, which is likely to persist, is also contributing to high gold prices,” the firm declared.
“S&P Global Market Intelligence data shows that regional trade in Africa accounted for approximately 13% of the continent’s total trade in 2024, an increase from 10.8% in 2010.”
S&P Global
The firm revealed that “intraregional trade in Africa is underdeveloped and regional trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement has been slow, hampered by nontariff barriers, insufficient infrastructure, and a high risk of terrorism and civil unrest, particularly in Central and West Africa.”
The effectiveness of the AfCFTA can further boost economic growth in Ghana. with the numerous initiatives being implemented in Ghana, such as the 24-Hour economy policy, a wider market with fewer trade barriers is needed to push growth.
The improvement and sustenance of these factors will propel the Ghanaian economy and ready it for the pressures that lie ahead, especially from population growth.
Improving productivity growth is key to unlocking faster economic growth. Faster real GDP growth is necessary to prevent income per capita gaps between sub-Saharan countries and the rest of the world from widening further. This will be critical as population growth in the region is forecast to be among the highest globally. In 2025, about 12% of the global working-age population (aged 15-64) is in sub-Saharan Africa. According to UN population projections, this is expected to rise to 15% in 2030 and 25% in 2050. Ensuring economic opportunities are available for this large unit of workers is vital to support social and political stability in the region.
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