Energy Chamber of Ghana has called on the government to urgently implement a comprehensive Upstream Recovery Strategy (2026-2035) to reverse a dangerous downward trend in national crude oil output.
This appeal comes in response to a structural production decline that has persisted for six consecutive years, leaving the country’s energy economy critically dependent on just two primary anchors: the Jubilee and Sankofa-Gye Nyame (SGN) fields.
The Chamber warns that without a strategic replacement plan, the current “structural basin maturity,” worsened by a significant slowdown in capital investment, will continue to erode the nation’s fiscal stability.
“Production has declined for six consecutive years and remains critically concentrated in only two producing anchors—the Jubilee and SGN fields. This is not cyclical decline; it is structural basin maturity compounded by an investment slowdown.”
Energy Chamber of Ghana
This systemic downturn is identified not as a temporary or cyclical fluctuation, but as a fundamental exhaustion of existing assets that lacks a robust pipeline of new projects.
To prevent Ghana from mirroring the prolonged fiscal contractions seen in jurisdictions like Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and pre-reform Indonesia before their respective revitalisation efforts, the Chamber proposes a multi-pronged approach.
This strategy includes modernising seismic data infrastructure and introducing “risk-sharing frontier terms” to attract fresh exploration in deepwater and marginal acreages, ensuring that the country remains competitive against global peers such as Guyana and Norway.
“Without upstream reinvestment, Ghana risks following the trajectory of jurisdictions that experienced prolonged fiscal contraction before upstream revitalisation programmes were introduced,” Energy Chambe of Ghana warned.
Strategic Benchmarking and Fiscal Intervention
To combat the “structural basin maturity” threatening the sector, the Chamber advocates for adopting international best practices that have successfully extended the life of aging assets elsewhere.
By implementing “brownfield fiscal incentives” for the Jubilee and TEN reservoirs, Ghana could mirror the success of Brazil’s marginal field licensing or the tax credit systems utilized in the United Kingdom to encourage late-life field optimization.
Such measures are essential to ensuring that existing infrastructure continues to contribute to the national purse while new discoveries are appraised.
The proposal emphasizes that the government must accelerate the appraisal cycles of marginal discoveries to bring them online faster.
By establishing a National Reserve Replacement Strategy (NRRS) with rigorous five-year targets, the state can move away from reactive management and toward a proactive growth model.
The Chamber argued that “continuous exploration investment” is the only viable shield against the natural depletion of offshore reservoirs, requiring a modernized framework to lower the entry barriers for global energy players.
Frontier Exploration and Data Modernization
A critical pillar of the recommended 2026-2035 strategy involves opening new acreages and enhancing the quality of available geological information.
The Chamber suggests that “modernizing seismic data infrastructure” is a prerequisite for attracting the high-stakes exploration investment needed to identify the next generation of producing fields.
By offering “deepwater fiscal incentives,” Ghana can position itself as an attractive destination for “risk-sharing frontier” projects, much like the recent accelerated cycles seen in Guyana’s deepwater success stories.
The Chamber believes that if these proposals are adopted, they could provide the “upstream reinvestment” necessary to halt the current decline.
The integration of “risk-sharing frontier terms” would allow the state and private investors to better distribute the financial burdens of exploring untapped basins.
Ultimately, the Chamber of Energy of Ghana maintains that a formal recovery strategy is the only way to safeguard the industry from a “prolonged fiscal contraction” and ensure long-term energy security for the nation.
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